Nate Silver

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

We'd love to have more polling. But if you had to guess from the evidence we have so far, plus the mediocre ratings for the convention, you'd think we're looking at a modest bounce for Trump that may be detectable but is on the smaller side of convention bounces historically. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

In post-convention polling, YouGov and Morning Consult show slight gains for Trump. Ipsos/ABC did not release head-to-head numbers, but showed no change in views of Biden or Trump. The USC tracking poll so far shows Biden's lead GROWING post-RNC. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

It doesn't help that there hasn't been much polling lately, but there is a lot of "the pendulum is swinging away from Biden" speculation based on rather little actual evidence, most if it coming from the sorts of people from whom such speculation often proves to be wrong. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @ABCPolitics: Trump is trying to portray protesters against racism and police brutality as anarchists. @natesilver538 explores the impli… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Even if the risk associated with any one activity is just 0.05% (1 in 2000), I'd have a ~60% chance of getting COVID if maintaining this pre-COVID lifestyle for a year. Actually, maybe a bit less because the risks are likely somewhat non-independent, but you get the general idea. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I'm guessing in my pre-COVID life, I was doing ~35 activities a week that would now be considered at least medium-risk. Most of these are boring: going to the office, riding the subway, eating meals in restaurants, etc. I'm guessing most other people's numbers are similar. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

The replies to this are interesting. I suspect most people vastly overestimate the risks of catching COVID given *any one* activity (e.g. going to the grocery store once) but then fail to consider how much the risks accumulate when you're performing these activities *repeatedly*. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

In the particular case of the post-RNC polls, I'd say the small Trump bounce in polls so far is about what you might have expected and shouldn't change your view of the race much. But it's very possible to err in either direction and "stop panicking, Dems!" can be a lazy trope. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

It used to be that Democrats overreacted to small movements in polls, but then in 2016 there were all sorts of dubious rationalizations/hot takes for ignoring that the race tightened from Clinton +6 to Clinton +3 after the Comey letter, which proved to be decisive. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@nataliemj10 Our prior shouldn't be zero bounce, though, given that conventions usually produce bounces. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

My prior though (more discussion about this on our podcast) is that Trump might get a bounce because for 4 days, voters were living in a fantasy world where COVID-19 was behind us, etc. But now we're going to snap back to reality and whatever bounce he gets could snap back, too. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

PS: Are people making too much of one poll? Yeah, maybe. It's a large sample and Morning Consult's polls tend not to show a lot of movement. But we should wait for more. There's also been some polling conducted *during* or partly after the RNC, which hasn't been great for Trump. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Morning Consult, for instance, generally had the race at about Biden +8 before the conventions. Then that gets up to +10 after the DNC. Now it's +6. So does that reflect a 4-point bounce for Trump? I'd say no; it's more like a 2-point bounce + a small Biden bounce wearing off. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Agree with everything in this thread. One other technical aside: when measuring a bounce from post-RNC polls, it matters whether you're comparing against polls that were conducted before the conventions or rather in between the conventions, which may have captured Biden's bounce. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

First fully post-convention poll shows a bit of a bounce for Trump. Many other polls surely to follow. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Majorities of people—even in Sweden! Italy!—think their countries did a good job handling COVID in all countries but the UK and the US. Would seem to suggest an even halfway competent and empathetic response could have been a boon to Trump's re-election. https://t.co/IQit6f6tty https://t.co/Jjn9m9fodg — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @KFILE: @NateSilver538 Silent malarkey — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Seems to me that if Biden is at 51% in polls but his supporters aren't super vocal and don't have a ton of yard signs out there and stuff, then Biden voters could make a good claim to being the "silent majority". — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@EsotericCD @SeanTrende @stevesingiser @OsitaNwanevu Yeah by far the biggest motivation to do this is to manipulate betting markets, and the fact that the first thing he said was "I didn't do this to manipulate betting markets!" suggests something about what was on his mind. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@OsitaNwanevu Yeah not good. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

There are a lot of factors here, and the conventions were quite well-produced, but I think emerging conventional wisdom that "virtual conventions are just as compelling to the home audience!" isn't looking so hot, especially given otherwise-high interest in this election. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @baseballot: Here are the final ratings for both conventions. https://t.co/jJByQ1L2ZK — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Correction. A 9-point win would be biggest win since '84, not '80. Would be the largest defeat of an incumbent since '80, though. And if Biden could win by 10 instead of 9, would be the largest defeat of an incumbent since Hoover in '32. https://t.co/6lEGxIg5dA — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

At Biden +2 or +3 points, though? Then the Electoral College is roughly a toss-up. And at +5 or +6, he can't breathe easily; then he's just a normal, 2016-sized polling error away from losing a squeaker in the Electoral College. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

If Biden wins by 9 points, his current margin in polls, it's the largest popular vote victory since Reagan over Carter in '80. And his map would be impressive. Something like the Obama '08 map plus Arizona and quite possibly Georgia and Texas (though without Indiana). — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I've said this before, but part of what's confusing about this presidential race is that because of Trump's Electoral College edge, there isn't all that much of middle ground between "landslide" and "highly competitive". — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I'm skeptical that winning the convention ratings race matters all that much. But, this would be consistent with voters feeling like they've heard enough from Trump and not being terribly receptive to new messages (although there wasn't that much new last night anyway). — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I actually think that might be lowballing it a bit; this method would have slightly underestimated turnout in both 2016 and 2018 as there may be something about the Trump era that makes people feel *compelled* to vote even if they aren't *enthusiastic* about it per se. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Based on polls that ask whether people are more or less enthusiastic about voting than usual, we would currently project turnout of around 62% of the voting-eligible population, which would tie with 2008 for the record since 18-year-olds gained the right to vote. Was 60% in 2016. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@studentactivism @jonathanchait @owasow And if Trump tries to crack down on the protests or exploit them for political gain, that may bring more people out and help them reach that critical mass. — PolitiTweet.org