Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked April 27, 2021

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Sat Aug 29 19:01:21 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

In the particular case of the post-RNC polls, I'd say the small Trump bounce in polls so far is about what you might have expected and shouldn't change your view of the race much. But it's very possible to err in either direction and "stop panicking, Dems!" can be a lazy trope. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 29, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

It used to be that Democrats overreacted to small movements in polls, but then in 2016 there were all sorts of dubious rationalizations/hot takes for ignoring that the race tightened from Clinton +6 to Clinton +3 after the Comey letter, which proved to be decisive. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 29, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

The replies to this are interesting. I suspect most people vastly overestimate the risks of catching COVID given *any one* activity (e.g. going to the grocery store once) but then fail to consider how much the risks accumulate when you're performing these activities *repeatedly*. — PolitiTweet.org

What % risk of getting infected by #COVID19 would you consider to be the same as a "low" risk activity? cc @LizGoldbergMD @ashishkjha

Posted Aug. 29, 2020 Hibernated