Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked April 27, 2021

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Sat Aug 29 18:48:46 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

It used to be that Democrats overreacted to small movements in polls, but then in 2016 there were all sorts of dubious rationalizations/hot takes for ignoring that the race tightened from Clinton +6 to Clinton +3 after the Comey letter, which proved to be decisive. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 29, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@nataliemj10 Our prior shouldn't be zero bounce, though, given that conventions usually produce bounces. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 29, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

In the particular case of the post-RNC polls, I'd say the small Trump bounce in polls so far is about what you might have expected and shouldn't change your view of the race much. But it's very possible to err in either direction and "stop panicking, Dems!" can be a lazy trope. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 29, 2020 Hibernated