Nate Silver

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

It's not quite a matter of me "taking into things into consideration". The pollster ratings are determined by a formula, not my subjective view of how much I like a pollster. But since Trafalgar had an awful 2022, they're going to do much worse once the ratings are recalcualted. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @samsanders: If weather forecasters relied on forecasting software as bad as political polling has been for political journalism for the… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @bendreyfuss: America's best pundit* has published the smartest take yet on Elon Musk's takeover of Twitter. These predictions are insig… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @deepyy_: Ben Simmons stats just be that 3 digit number on the back of your credit card — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

There are a lot that might be said about this, none of them kind, but among other things it's self-defeating. If we get to the point where the polls suck so bad that they can be predictably "unskewed", I'm going to find better things to do with my time than run a polling website. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@cwarzel I guess it's hard being a subject-matter expert suddenly thrust into the public spotlight. But a decent number of the public health accounts have been pretty toxic themselves. Not the majority, most of have been great, but a vocal minority, more than I'd have expected. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @NateSilver538: @helaineolen One other thing I've noticed too is restaurants turning over tables more quickly (all your food may come at… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@joshtpm @BrendanNyhan It's jhard to argue with someone who has observed the behavior of public health folks for the past 3 years, not all or most of them but *many* of them especially the ones most active in the press, and not concluded they have a high propensity toward partisan motivated reasoning. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Also worth mentioning that Dobbs isn't the only thing going on. Gas prices are down. Trump is back in the news because of the Jan. 6 hearings and for other reasons. COVID deaths are remain toward the lower end since the pandemic began. Wacky GOP candidates are winning primaries. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @owasow: My quirky, beautiful wife @jenbrea is missing. She was last seen near gate D37 at Miami Int’l Airport on Wednesday (6/15). She… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

The policing of the boundary between what is "political" and what isn't is someone nearly everyone is hypocritical about, including me. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Although it's not my job to tell people what to do with their money, it's probably the case that lot of donor money is VERY badly spent on high-profile races where it makes little difference at the margin. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Let's at least try to understand the difference between an average vs. a mode or median right if we're going to attempt dunks about statistical claims? Is that really too much to ask? — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

The medium-run equilibrium is probably that airlines designate some of their flights as mask-requied and some as mask-optional. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @jonmladd: Yes. When political scientists talk about the economy mattering, it is Real Disposable Income growth that is the best correla… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

The best way to understand Biden is not as a moderate or a liberal but as someone who, with a good deal of success, has always tried to position himself at the center of the Democratic Party. So as the Democratic Party has moved left, so had Biden. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @MattGarrahan: Remarkable interview from the manager of Aldershot Town https://t.co/KB2H3ugldX — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @maya_sen: Historians of the future: “surprisingly, people at the time did little to stem the slow creep of authoritarianism across the… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@bendreyfuss The obvious answer is Southeast Florida but (depending on how we're defining "America") you might think about Costa Rica. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

One problem with "erring on the side of caution" is that has high potential to lead to a slippery slope unless there's some sort of limiting principle in place. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @JillFilipovic: The chance of death from Covid for a person vaccinated against Covid is lower than the chance you die of the flu (assumi… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

The sample size is this non peer reviewed study is 83 people and completely lacks the statistical power to differentiate between vaccinated and unvaccinanted people. Even more ridiculous to come to conclusions based on this than the Provincetown Bear Week study. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @mattyglesias: 9/10 base rate fallacies are committed by right-handed people. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@CrackingAAces @Protentialmn Vz f , — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Here's a paper with one hypothesis explaining why. https://t.co/AhSzDSrj1M — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

In the UK, Delta's transmissability advantage relative to Alpha seems to have declined. There was also this pattern with Alpha vs. the original strain. At first, it had a huge transmissibility advantage. But it diminished as more people were infected. https://t.co/2FaC7gtNir — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @MC_of_A: I made a model to estimate the likely distribution of the remaining absentee vote it projects, like, a tie -- 50.1% Adams, 4… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Eyes emoji https://t.co/zNX4wvI2ru — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @Yair_Rosenberg: @jonathanchait In March 2016, I wrote a piece suggesting Trump could win after watching him speak live. I got a TON of… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @aaronecarroll: As someone who has written a gazillion words on how we pay too much for "me-too" drugs and things that barely work, I wi… — PolitiTweet.org