Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked April 27, 2021

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Sat Aug 29 16:45:30 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Morning Consult, for instance, generally had the race at about Biden +8 before the conventions. Then that gets up to +10 after the DNC. Now it's +6. So does that reflect a 4-point bounce for Trump? I'd say no; it's more like a 2-point bounce + a small Biden bounce wearing off. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 29, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Agree with everything in this thread. One other technical aside: when measuring a bounce from post-RNC polls, it matters whether you're comparing against polls that were conducted before the conventions or rather in between the conventions, which may have captured Biden's bounce. — PolitiTweet.org

In the context of a bounce, Biden+6 is not a great number for Trump. After all, bounces are usually... bounces. Loo… https://t.co/0fq3B9ryXR

Posted Aug. 29, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

PS: Are people making too much of one poll? Yeah, maybe. It's a large sample and Morning Consult's polls tend not to show a lot of movement. But we should wait for more. There's also been some polling conducted *during* or partly after the RNC, which hasn't been great for Trump. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 29, 2020 Hibernated