Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked April 27, 2021

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Fri Aug 28 20:47:19 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

If Biden wins by 9 points, his current margin in polls, it's the largest popular vote victory since Reagan over Carter in '80. And his map would be impressive. Something like the Obama '08 map plus Arizona and quite possibly Georgia and Texas (though without Indiana). — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 28, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I've said this before, but part of what's confusing about this presidential race is that because of Trump's Electoral College edge, there isn't all that much of middle ground between "landslide" and "highly competitive". — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 28, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

At Biden +2 or +3 points, though? Then the Electoral College is roughly a toss-up. And at +5 or +6, he can't breathe easily; then he's just a normal, 2016-sized polling error away from losing a squeaker in the Electoral College. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 28, 2020 Hibernated