Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked April 27, 2021

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Fri Aug 28 20:50:08 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

At Biden +2 or +3 points, though? Then the Electoral College is roughly a toss-up. And at +5 or +6, he can't breathe easily; then he's just a normal, 2016-sized polling error away from losing a squeaker in the Electoral College. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 28, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

If Biden wins by 9 points, his current margin in polls, it's the largest popular vote victory since Reagan over Carter in '80. And his map would be impressive. Something like the Obama '08 map plus Arizona and quite possibly Georgia and Texas (though without Indiana). — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 28, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Correction. A 9-point win would be biggest win since '84, not '80. Would be the largest defeat of an incumbent since '80, though. And if Biden could win by 10 instead of 9, would be the largest defeat of an incumbent since Hoover in '32. https://t.co/6lEGxIg5dA — PolitiTweet.org

@NateSilver538 Reagan 84 was bigger

Posted Aug. 28, 2020 Hibernated