Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked April 27, 2021

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Fri Aug 28 16:15:03 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I actually think that might be lowballing it a bit; this method would have slightly underestimated turnout in both 2016 and 2018 as there may be something about the Trump era that makes people feel *compelled* to vote even if they aren't *enthusiastic* about it per se. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 28, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Based on polls that ask whether people are more or less enthusiastic about voting than usual, we would currently project turnout of around 62% of the voting-eligible population, which would tie with 2008 for the record since 18-year-olds gained the right to vote. Was 60% in 2016. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 28, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I'm skeptical that winning the convention ratings race matters all that much. But, this would be consistent with voters feeling like they've heard enough from Trump and not being terribly receptive to new messages (although there wasn't that much new last night anyway). — PolitiTweet.org

Overnight ratings for the fourth and final night of the conventions. Six networks combined (FNC/CNN/MSNBC/ABC/CBS… https://t.co/hAq8aMClYx

Posted Aug. 28, 2020 Hibernated