Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked April 27, 2021

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Sat Aug 29 17:05:08 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

My prior though (more discussion about this on our podcast) is that Trump might get a bounce because for 4 days, voters were living in a fantasy world where COVID-19 was behind us, etc. But now we're going to snap back to reality and whatever bounce he gets could snap back, too. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 29, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

PS: Are people making too much of one poll? Yeah, maybe. It's a large sample and Morning Consult's polls tend not to show a lot of movement. But we should wait for more. There's also been some polling conducted *during* or partly after the RNC, which hasn't been great for Trump. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 29, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@nataliemj10 Our prior shouldn't be zero bounce, though, given that conventions usually produce bounces. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 29, 2020 Hibernated