Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked April 27, 2021

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Sat Aug 29 20:45:49 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I'm guessing in my pre-COVID life, I was doing ~35 activities a week that would now be considered at least medium-risk. Most of these are boring: going to the office, riding the subway, eating meals in restaurants, etc. I'm guessing most other people's numbers are similar. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 29, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

The replies to this are interesting. I suspect most people vastly overestimate the risks of catching COVID given *any one* activity (e.g. going to the grocery store once) but then fail to consider how much the risks accumulate when you're performing these activities *repeatedly*. — PolitiTweet.org

What % risk of getting infected by #COVID19 would you consider to be the same as a "low" risk activity? cc @LizGoldbergMD @ashishkjha

Posted Aug. 29, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Even if the risk associated with any one activity is just 0.05% (1 in 2000), I'd have a ~60% chance of getting COVID if maintaining this pre-COVID lifestyle for a year. Actually, maybe a bit less because the risks are likely somewhat non-independent, but you get the general idea. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 29, 2020 Hibernated