Nate Cohn

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

(or if you prefer, where the top of the Dem ticket did worse than Biden) — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

I will say that the huge GOP turnout in rural GA in the 2018 midterm elections does make me think this factor may not be as helpful to Dems as they might hope. After all, GA is one of the very few places where the GOP ticket in '18 did better than Trump in 2020 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

And this is a huge question, especially given the... flaws of the GOP candidates. It's also one that's harder to evaluate than some of the others. https://t.co/rB7Juk7zkg — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

I usually don't think fundraising is a great measure to watch--just ask Senator-elect Harrison--but Dem fundraising will be interesting here, as it may be at least some indication of whether Dem activists are quite as energized and tuned in as they have been — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

So, IDK. I think it's hard to avoid concluding that the GOP is favored by some amount, simply because R Sen candida… https://t.co/ZqhUecXP67 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

And unlike cases where the president-elect's party holds so much power that they don't have much to fight for, the… https://t.co/su4rx70EVE — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

I think that's definitely a possibility. But in the scheme of cases where a party flips to out of power, this is...… https://t.co/NOc3ghQUVS — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

The big thing the GOP is counting on, IMO, is a big shift in the national environment toward the GOP, as they now i… https://t.co/UC9lkim1M8 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

And I think the new dynamics, post-2020 general, are ... murky? Trump is still dominating the news. GOP is out there claiming the election was stolen, even though the GOPers ran ahead of Trump in part by winning some Biden folks who can't be too pleased not to be taken seriously — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Now, none of this means that the Democrats are clearly favored to win or something. GOP outvoted Dems in both Senate races in the general. But I think Dem chances are being downgraded from ok to a pipedream for reasons that aren't true anymore, even if they were a decade ago — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

The 2018 runoff isn't exactly a best case for Democrats. Turnout fell to ~35% of the 2018 general election. I don't think we expect such a severe dropoff in this runoff. And in this case, a Black candidate is at the top of the ticket--so it's the reverse of 08/18 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

You can see this in the 2018 runoff for SOS. The turnout plummets, but Democrats only lose by 3.8 pts. The black share of the electorate falls (Abrams no longer top of ticket), but only to 27.4 percent--higher than 2020. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

More generally, this just isn't 2008's GA electorate. Democrats have a lot more strength at the top of the turnout spectrum, thanks to gains among subrbanites. There are roughly equal numbers of Dem/Rep primary voters, so they can compete in a lower turnout election — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

More generally, I just don't think this is the same Georgia electorate as 2008. Democrats now enjoy a lot of strength at the top of the turnout index. There are nearly even numbers of recent Democratic and Republican primary voters. Lower turnout doesn't hurt like it used to — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

I believe that's wrong in part because there have been lots of more competitive runoffs in Louisiana, where the Black share of the electorate often increases in runoffs compared to the general! No one should be surprised if that happens here, and that's a real risk to the GOP — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Now, I don't have the data to decompose exactly what *did* happen. I'm sure there was an unfavorable turnout shift, especially among young voters--and Dems back then were very dependent on young voters. But the core idea that black voters just don't turnout in runoffs seems wrong — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

By my estimate (since for whatever reason the GA SOS didn't publish it, as they usually do), the Black share of the electorate in the GA special was 27.7 percent Black--it was down a bit from the general (29.9 IIRC), but still quite healthy (and indeed, higher than 2020!) — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

For starters, some of the mythologizing about the 2008 runoff is wrong. Many analysts have blamed a precipitous decline in black turnout, but I don't think that's what happened — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

One election looms over the Georgia runoff: the 2008 runoff, when the GOP won a runoff election by 15 points after leading by just 3 points on Election Day. I really don't think this should, well, loom over our analysis — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@MattGrossmann I don't think these will exactly match what I had earlier for 2020, but I think this is the best apples-to-apples comparison https://t.co/OCtPO8SGhD — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@MattGrossmann you mean based on recalled 2016 vote? — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

And since this wasn't clear, this implies that the 'new' white/black voters in ATL were actually somewhat more supportive of Trump than those who voted in both 2016 and 2020. That said, small differences; small samples. Not at all definitive https://t.co/KwiXfOlXjn — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

And since this wasn't clear, this implies that the 'new' white/black/hisp voters in ATL were somewhat more supportive of Trump than those who voted in 2016. That said, small differences; small samples. Not at all definitive https://t.co/KwiXfOlXjn — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Anyway, I don't think this constitutes definitive proof. But if the Times/Siena data were taken as authoritative on this question--and I don't think it can be--then you probably would have to attribute most of that 85% shift to voters actually changing their mind — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

I don't think this is hugely surprising, given the turnout data by party that we see elsewhere in the country, like NC/FL/NV--which also have fast changing populations. But of the three, GA certainly has the most Dem trend so perhaps this might have gone differently — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

You could read into those tiny changes if you want, but I'm just calling it a wash. There's certainly no obvious evidence that the voters who turned out in 2020 were much different than 2016. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

The Times/Siena data doesn't show any meaningful difference between those with a 2016 or a 2020 record of voting, within each racial group. Here, a positive number means Biden did better among 2020 vt than 2016 White -.4 Black -.8 Hispanic +.6 Asian +1.5 Other -1.4 Unknown -1 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

The Times/Siena data doesn't really show any meaningful difference in vote choice between those with a 2016 or a 2020 record of voting. Here's the difference by group White -.4 Black -.8 Hispanic +.6 Asian +1.5 Other -1.4 Unknown -1 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

That said, the Times/Siena poll can help us here as well. We know whether our respondents voted, based on the same vote history data. So we can see whether the folks in a given racial group who voted in '16 are much different than those who voted in 2020 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

As a result, we can't say--based on this data, at least--that 85% of Biden's gains were due to vote flipping, just because 15% were due to shifts in the topline racial composition of the electorate — PolitiTweet.org