Nate Cohn

@Nate_Cohn ↗

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Last Checked Feb. 3, 2022

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Wed Nov 18 15:25:25 +0000 2020

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

I believe that's wrong in part because there have been lots of more competitive runoffs in Louisiana, where the Black share of the electorate often increases in runoffs compared to the general! No one should be surprised if that happens here, and that's a real risk to the GOP — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 18, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Now, I don't have the data to decompose exactly what *did* happen. I'm sure there was an unfavorable turnout shift, especially among young voters--and Dems back then were very dependent on young voters. But the core idea that black voters just don't turnout in runoffs seems wrong — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 18, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

More generally, I just don't think this is the same Georgia electorate as 2008. Democrats now enjoy a lot of strength at the top of the turnout index. There are nearly even numbers of recent Democratic and Republican primary voters. Lower turnout doesn't hurt like it used to — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 18, 2020 Deleted Hibernated