Deleted tweet detection is currently running at reduced capacity due to changes to the Twitter API. Some tweets that have been deleted by the tweet author may not be labeled as deleted in the PolitiTweet interface.

Showing page 1 of 17.

Profile Image

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@cwarshaw @CERVASJ @SeanTrende @databyler sure, i mean, that's my position in this discussion. that said, traditionally the popular vote is not reported without imputation, whether it's an NYT results page, a wikipedia article, a table in a book article, etc. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 18, 2022 Deleted after 4 minutes Just a Typo
Profile Image

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

NYT/Siena, in comparison, had the more GOP electorate (and I expect the more accurate one when all the data arrives) yet had the more Democratic result: NV - Even AZ - R+8 PA - D+1 — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 17, 2022 Deleted after 15 seconds Just a Typo
Profile Image

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

With the GOP getting the call in closely fought AZ1/AZ6, the path to a fairly quick resolution to the House suddenly starts to look pretty open: CA41, CA45, CA25, CA3 aren't especially close; NY22 is basically done and is presumably (?) just a matter of accounting — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 15, 2022 Deleted after a minute Just a Typo
Profile Image

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Agreed. Wisconsin, too https://t.co/OsMLzdUJa8 — PolitiTweet.org

Sean T at RCP is a free elf @SeanTrende

The Dobbs theory is facially reasonable, but you have to explain DeWine vs Vance, or Kemp vs Walker, or Lombardo vs… https://t.co/qZi4Yz2CgZ

Posted Nov. 13, 2022 Deleted after 32 seconds
Profile Image

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

If we take these trends seriously, then the Dem path looks something like this: Hold the 214 where they're ahead Flip CA13/AZ6 Flip CA22, which takes no stretch of the imaginable Flip... something else: luck in OR5/NY19? surge in long-shot CA27/CA45? maybe CA41 reverses? — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 12, 2022 Deleted after 57 seconds Just a Typo
Profile Image

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Dems still lead in WA-3, but Joe Kemp has led the post-election night count by a pretty wide margin. There's enough vote left for him to retake the lead if the trend continues — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 11, 2022 Deleted after 13 seconds Just a Typo
Profile Image

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

The path for Republicans to hold the Senate is getting... awfully thin, as Democrats post strong showings in mail ballots tonight in Arizona and Nevada. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 11, 2022 Deleted after 37 seconds Just a Typo
Profile Image

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

I'm sure this has been said a million times, but Ron DeSantis has to be feeling pretty good about tonight — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 9, 2022 Deleted after 12 seconds
Profile Image

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Over time, additional needle may be added to the needle. For the first time, we will attempt to integrate multiple data sources into a single integrated national model. We're going to iteratively add and validate -- elements of this are essentially untestable in advance — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 9, 2022 Deleted after 25 seconds Just a Typo
Profile Image

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

What do you think the results will show: --Evidence and explanations/possible solutions for D nonresponse bias --Evidence of D nonresponse bias, but no explanation/solution --No major D nonresponse bias/evidence things are better in 202 — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 3, 2022 Deleted after 12 seconds
Profile Image

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

https://t.co/7EOF6DIuDz — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 3, 2022 Deleted after 7 seconds
Profile Image

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@MattGrossmann i don't think the online panel will involve any recontacting, but that's on ipsos' side / haven't asked — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 3, 2022 Deleted after 8 seconds
Profile Image

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Pretty clear split between cheap online panel and everything else right now on the generic congressional ballot right now, with Big Village and Morning Consult taking on the world https://t.co/WSSvYg0s4T — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 3, 2022 Deleted after 15 seconds Just a Typo
Profile Image

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@LoganDobson though, right or wrong, we had laxalt ahead despite those issues — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 1, 2022 Deleted after 49 seconds
Profile Image

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@davidshor @billscher well, try to — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 30, 2022 Deleted after 20 seconds
Profile Image

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

(I say after '20 bc incumbents really struggled to outrun Trump/Biden in '20. A guy like Cartwright would have gone down in '20 in an R+4 environment. Maybe he will in the end, but the polling doesn't seem to show such a tight relationship between pres and ballot this time) — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 28, 2022 Deleted after 18 seconds Just a Typo
Profile Image

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@SpecialPuppy1 @NateSilver538 maybe +4. it's not my ex ante expectation but everyone seems to think cartwright is holding on — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 28, 2022 Deleted after 18 seconds
Profile Image

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@nataliemj10 @kwcollins i say borderline ideological because the conversations have a feature that's very common to ideological discussions: even very smart anti-rounding people have a very hard time understanding and then acknowledging that there are real tradeoffs — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 14, 2022 Deleted after 2 minutes Just a Typo
Profile Image

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

you can subscribe (and see the most recent newsletter, which contains two such tidbits here) https://t.co/vfLG2cxoiv — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 14, 2022 Deleted after 12 seconds
Profile Image

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@baseballot @LoganDobson well the model does know about the RGV shift -- it just doesn't take it as seriously as a model trained only on recent data, for ex. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 10, 2022 Deleted after 45 seconds
Profile Image

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@baseballot is this because of your partisanship measure in a traditionally dem district? other model specifications would have this as a pretty plainly GOP favored CD — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 10, 2022 Deleted after 29 seconds
Profile Image

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

but if you turn off a close football game once the initially favored team (that's stuck in an unexpected close game after the SCOTUS threw a pick-six) gets the back ball and gets a couple of first downs, you can turn off the house too — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 3, 2022 Deleted after 6 minutes Just a Typo
Profile Image

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Not a ton of generic ballot polls over the last two weeks, but the signs of at shift are starting on the generic are starting to add up https://t.co/QdzrtXj7HG — PolitiTweet.org

MonmouthPoll @MonmouthPoll

NATIONAL POLL: Which party do Americans want in control of Congress? 36% GOP 11% not matter, but lean GOP 34% DE… https://t.co/9hxfKmN3lk

Posted Oct. 3, 2022 Deleted after 12 seconds
Profile Image

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

IDK if @fivethirtyeight takes requests like a radio station or something, but i'd be curious to see the good ole' House 'nowcast'. It wouldn't surprise me if Dems were ahead — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 3, 2022 Deleted after 6 minutes
Profile Image

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@gelliottmorris it is relevant to your narrower point about whether you care more about a shift of .2 pts or whatever in the median district v. shifting 8 districts from right to left of the national vote. it greatly increases the vulnerability of the GOP advantage to the phenomena you cite — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 30, 2022 Deleted after 9 seconds Just a Typo
Profile Image

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

There is a funny story here, as John Judis and I worked together at TNR at the time and he did not recall that they had 'blue WV' https://t.co/yiHt7FTZmt — PolitiTweet.org

Eric Kingsbury @ericmkingsbury

@Nate_Cohn I’ve been waiting for this for nine years, since you first brought it up! I still tell people about how… https://t.co/ig9vbqit8U

Posted Sept. 23, 2022 Deleted after an hour
Profile Image

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@leedrutman @BrendanNyhan @ElectProject @protctdemocracy i'm utterly agnostic on whether this is a problem. i'm neither an advocate nor an opponent of your proposal. but pretending there aren't representational trade offs is brain-dead — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 22, 2022 Deleted after 22 seconds Just a Typo
Profile Image

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

I didn't mention this in the piece, but our Oct '19 results do play a pretty real role in my gut-level instinct about whether 2020 error could be transient https://t.co/caFByLKMAj — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 20, 2022 Deleted after 32 seconds
Profile Image

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@doug_rivers i'm just referring to the longer term, average deff across times/siena polls — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 19, 2022 Deleted after 54 seconds
Profile Image

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Pew found Dems up by 25 points among Hispanic voters, 53-28. We were D+26, 56-32. And among all RVs, Pew and NYT/Siena both found D+2 — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 18, 2022 Deleted after a minute