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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn
@cwarshaw @CERVASJ @SeanTrende @databyler sure, i mean, that's my position in this discussion. that said, traditionally the popular vote is not reported without imputation, whether it's an NYT results page, a wikipedia article, a table in a book article, etc. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn
NYT/Siena, in comparison, had the more GOP electorate (and I expect the more accurate one when all the data arrives) yet had the more Democratic result: NV - Even AZ - R+8 PA - D+1 — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn
With the GOP getting the call in closely fought AZ1/AZ6, the path to a fairly quick resolution to the House suddenly starts to look pretty open: CA41, CA45, CA25, CA3 aren't especially close; NY22 is basically done and is presumably (?) just a matter of accounting — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn
Agreed. Wisconsin, too https://t.co/OsMLzdUJa8 — PolitiTweet.org
Sean T at RCP is a free elf @SeanTrende
The Dobbs theory is facially reasonable, but you have to explain DeWine vs Vance, or Kemp vs Walker, or Lombardo vs… https://t.co/qZi4Yz2CgZ
Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn
If we take these trends seriously, then the Dem path looks something like this: Hold the 214 where they're ahead Flip CA13/AZ6 Flip CA22, which takes no stretch of the imaginable Flip... something else: luck in OR5/NY19? surge in long-shot CA27/CA45? maybe CA41 reverses? — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn
Dems still lead in WA-3, but Joe Kemp has led the post-election night count by a pretty wide margin. There's enough vote left for him to retake the lead if the trend continues — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn
The path for Republicans to hold the Senate is getting... awfully thin, as Democrats post strong showings in mail ballots tonight in Arizona and Nevada. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn
I'm sure this has been said a million times, but Ron DeSantis has to be feeling pretty good about tonight — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn
Over time, additional needle may be added to the needle. For the first time, we will attempt to integrate multiple data sources into a single integrated national model. We're going to iteratively add and validate -- elements of this are essentially untestable in advance — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn
What do you think the results will show: --Evidence and explanations/possible solutions for D nonresponse bias --Evidence of D nonresponse bias, but no explanation/solution --No major D nonresponse bias/evidence things are better in 202 — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn
https://t.co/7EOF6DIuDz — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn
@MattGrossmann i don't think the online panel will involve any recontacting, but that's on ipsos' side / haven't asked — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn
Pretty clear split between cheap online panel and everything else right now on the generic congressional ballot right now, with Big Village and Morning Consult taking on the world https://t.co/WSSvYg0s4T — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn
@LoganDobson though, right or wrong, we had laxalt ahead despite those issues — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn
@davidshor @billscher well, try to — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn
(I say after '20 bc incumbents really struggled to outrun Trump/Biden in '20. A guy like Cartwright would have gone down in '20 in an R+4 environment. Maybe he will in the end, but the polling doesn't seem to show such a tight relationship between pres and ballot this time) — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn
@SpecialPuppy1 @NateSilver538 maybe +4. it's not my ex ante expectation but everyone seems to think cartwright is holding on — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn
@nataliemj10 @kwcollins i say borderline ideological because the conversations have a feature that's very common to ideological discussions: even very smart anti-rounding people have a very hard time understanding and then acknowledging that there are real tradeoffs — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn
you can subscribe (and see the most recent newsletter, which contains two such tidbits here) https://t.co/vfLG2cxoiv — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn
@baseballot @LoganDobson well the model does know about the RGV shift -- it just doesn't take it as seriously as a model trained only on recent data, for ex. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn
@baseballot is this because of your partisanship measure in a traditionally dem district? other model specifications would have this as a pretty plainly GOP favored CD — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn
but if you turn off a close football game once the initially favored team (that's stuck in an unexpected close game after the SCOTUS threw a pick-six) gets the back ball and gets a couple of first downs, you can turn off the house too — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn
Not a ton of generic ballot polls over the last two weeks, but the signs of at shift are starting on the generic are starting to add up https://t.co/QdzrtXj7HG — PolitiTweet.org
MonmouthPoll @MonmouthPoll
NATIONAL POLL: Which party do Americans want in control of Congress? 36% GOP 11% not matter, but lean GOP 34% DE… https://t.co/9hxfKmN3lk
Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn
IDK if @fivethirtyeight takes requests like a radio station or something, but i'd be curious to see the good ole' House 'nowcast'. It wouldn't surprise me if Dems were ahead — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn
@gelliottmorris it is relevant to your narrower point about whether you care more about a shift of .2 pts or whatever in the median district v. shifting 8 districts from right to left of the national vote. it greatly increases the vulnerability of the GOP advantage to the phenomena you cite — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn
There is a funny story here, as John Judis and I worked together at TNR at the time and he did not recall that they had 'blue WV' https://t.co/yiHt7FTZmt — PolitiTweet.org
Eric Kingsbury @ericmkingsbury
@Nate_Cohn I’ve been waiting for this for nine years, since you first brought it up! I still tell people about how… https://t.co/ig9vbqit8U
Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn
@leedrutman @BrendanNyhan @ElectProject @protctdemocracy i'm utterly agnostic on whether this is a problem. i'm neither an advocate nor an opponent of your proposal. but pretending there aren't representational trade offs is brain-dead — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn
I didn't mention this in the piece, but our Oct '19 results do play a pretty real role in my gut-level instinct about whether 2020 error could be transient https://t.co/caFByLKMAj — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn
@doug_rivers i'm just referring to the longer term, average deff across times/siena polls — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn
Pew found Dems up by 25 points among Hispanic voters, 53-28. We were D+26, 56-32. And among all RVs, Pew and NYT/Siena both found D+2 — PolitiTweet.org