Nate Cohn

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@AlecMacGillis we had an easy crossing a few days ago — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@wpmarble @BrendanNyhan @mattyglesias one last thing--i do think there should be a much higher burden of proof on dismissing ecological evidence in the case of elections, where we have all of the turnout/voter file, survey and results data to help make sense of these effects — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@BrendanNyhan @mattyglesias this study doesn't appear to be based on ANES data that just doesn't show any R vote gain with Latino voters — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@gelliottmorris @davidshor @marcushjohnson from the standpoint of the regression, it is entirely possible that trump fares better among wwc if he never says a word about hispanics, muslims, blm, etc., sticks to china/trade and in doing so holds the low-RR WWC. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@gelliottmorris @davidshor @marcushjohnson my point is that there's a constellation of attitudes correlate with growing class polarization, just like many issues correlated with generational change. many of those attitudes are RR-adjacent (religion, anti-latino, anti-lgbt, anti-muslim, sexism, etc.). others are not. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@gelliottmorris @davidshor @marcushjohnson it's totally fair, at the individual level, that attitudes about gay marriage were more predictive of vote in '08 than age. but if you want to downplay the generational change framing of that election, i think that would be a mistake. why were the young people pro-gay marriage? — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@gelliottmorris @davidshor @marcushjohnson 'it's not generational change, it's about gay marriage' is just... missing something in '08, even though attitudes about gay marriage prevailed over age in a regression. 'it's not about industrial labor participation, it's about attitudes toward business' is similarly off — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@JayCostTWS in practice / as an empirical matter, it just seems hard for an issue to rise to become so important without it also becoming important in a proportional system, too — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@JayCostTWS anyway, i was mainly thinking about your story about the 'west'--not the south. clearly, if the south retained power in perpetuity, it wouldn't have seceded. the senate certainly advanced that, if it's your goal--the electoral college, interestingly, most certainly did not — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@jon_m_rob @otis_reid @RyanDEnos looking through, 2/3 of the 367k voted in the march primary — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@simon_bazelon @BrendanNyhan @davidshor @nbeaudrot @mattyglesias @MattGrossmann the GOP's structural advantage is significant, but the democrats have control of the chamber today for a reason! — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@davidshor @simon_bazelon @mattyglesias @MattGrossmann @BrendanNyhan but you can agree that's not popularism, right? a poll-driven mute button on progressive excess doesn't really offer in this regard, much in the same way that the RNC autopsy post '12 doesn't propose Trump — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

This isn't necessarily a crazy level of churn, fwiw, so I'd be a little cautious about interpreting this as a sign of mass strategic voting In TX, 14% of '20 D primary voters cast R ballots in the R primary in '22. 6% of '18 D primary voters did as well https://t.co/XavyLIlhfr — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@BruneElections turner is 43% reporting — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

The same thing can be said for the 'democracy' issue: it may not affect the generic ballot, but I am quite open to the idea that individual stop-the-steal-type GOP candidates can be materially punished for it — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@valeriecbradley conversely, wound up getting to a seeming unbiased answer by weighting to recalled '16 vote while grossly underrepresenting didn't vote/don't recall — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

In this narrow American context, I'll argue that Ideology in America probably deserves to be cited a little more often in these conversations. Many similar arguments but in a more familiar context than European Green parties or whatever — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

interestingly, i went on a field trip to grcc to learn about the salmon life cycle in middle school--and it was probably on 4/20 https://t.co/6SGaq8DkfE — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@davidshor @albrgr @abarber1 b is a common view of why 'majorities' crumble: parties exhaust whatever 'political capital' they gain from favorable events by embracing policies set them back to status quo ante. what would be unique here is the speed that this happens--ie: before even a single election win — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@ProfNickStephan mail ballots were 58-42 D heading into the election, 65-35 R among in-person ballots — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @JonHeyman: Japanese star Seiya Suzuki is headed to Cubs @thekapman reports $70M, 5 years — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@davidshor @NickRiccardi @EricLevitz @BenjySarlin (and the GOP's tendency to elevate those same issues when progressives win could also bias our perceptions of how often they win out) — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@davidshor @NickRiccardi @EricLevitz @BenjySarlin (and the GOP's tendency to elevate those same issues could also bias our perceptions of how often certain sides win out) — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @ragipsoylu: BREAKING — NATO to provide air defense systems to Ukraine and more weapons — Stoltenberg — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

This has been true for decades, and also probably less true than it's ever been https://t.co/dR7pINTsjf — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Polls show signs that the public's resolve to fight the coronavirus is waning, with the balance of recent surveys showing the desire to return to normalcy rising to match or exceed support for COVOID restrictions https://t.co/mjcakshCL5 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @mjs_DC: BREAKING: By a 5–4 vote, with Roberts joining the liberals in dissent, the Supreme Court halts a lower court order that require… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@mattyglesias @EricLevitz @MattBruenig there is something deeper here than simply whether democrats support expert decision-making--it's whether you can construe modern liberalism as a democratizing force that empowers 'the people' to have more control over their lives at the expense of the elite — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@Redistrict i'm a little surprised you think they would split pittsburgh/no district wholly in allegheny. it seems like a pretty big step further in pursuit of partisan balance than last time, though admittedly the process is quite different — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

One could argue that 7% inflation is more jarring today than it was in those prior instances, when baseline inflation was slightly higher. But I do think it's reasonable to argue there's more than the financial pain of inflation with this basic pattern — PolitiTweet.org