Deleted tweet detection is currently running at reduced capacity due to changes to the Twitter API. Some tweets that have been deleted by the tweet author may not be labeled as deleted in the PolitiTweet interface.

Showing page 1 of 727.

Profile Image

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

This leaves one major turnout question: did the Democrats enjoy a turnout advantage at the individual-level, perhaps due to higher turnout among well-educated voters? We're still aways from digging into that question — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Yesterday
Profile Image

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

The story in Pennsylvania is about the same. D+1.6 electorate (45.5-43.9) v. D+5.4 registration, thanks to 65% turnout among Democrats and 71% among Republicans on the L2 file — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Yesterday
Profile Image

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @MarinersVintage: Nike (1996) Griffey in ‘96 campaign https://t.co/kjXZTm6DII — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Yesterday Retweet
Profile Image

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@jon_m_rob i didn't want to start a fight over whether RBS was prob lol — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Feb. 3, 2023
Profile Image

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@jon_m_rob marquette/SSRS is prob internet. marist now has online panel/multi-modal stuff — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Feb. 3, 2023
Profile Image

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@jon_m_rob though the prob stuff is mainly online now too — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Feb. 3, 2023
Profile Image

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@nataliemj10 now, to your earlier thought -- yes, at the NYT it is *much* easier for me to apply an objective classification (prob/nonprb) with a very defensible analytical lens than for me (NYT) to declare polls good/bad subjectively and get into countless fights to defend it — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Feb. 3, 2023
Profile Image

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@nataliemj10 i guess that would depend on your subjective gradations, so idk where we disagree, but on my subjective gradiations the story is basically the same whether it's a categorical or continuous scale — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Feb. 3, 2023
Profile Image

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@nataliemj10 the central point of the article is that there is great variance among nonprob, not that they're all the same. that variance appears to be a function of their unifying trait -- no single sample frame --> crazy different samples -- which makes it appropriate to treat it together — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Feb. 3, 2023
Profile Image

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@nataliemj10 my vague read of the room is that pollsters are more pesmisitic than they were when i wrote this, which i think is still my basic position here https://t.co/2h6LU3CXyN — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Feb. 3, 2023
Profile Image

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@nataliemj10 i don't think it's misleading. almost everyone i talk to thinks there's real daylight between nonprob panels and online prob/phones. that's my independent read as well. i think what i wrote is consensus: nonprob can solid, but it's hard, can be terrible and it's hard to evaluate — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Feb. 3, 2023
Profile Image

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@nataliemj10 yeah, i mean, that's the 'subjective classification' option. i don't think it's an option for me to make that kind of characterization without in-depth explanation, let alone on a chart — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Feb. 3, 2023
Profile Image

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@nataliemj10 and unfortunately, i don't think we have anywhere near the level disclosure / understanding of best practices to be able to distinguish which nonprob polls are in which category -- which is part of why the spread in trump support has the potential to be so revelatory — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Feb. 3, 2023
Profile Image

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@nataliemj10 in the interim, i think it remains entirely true that probability polls by rigorous firms weighted by standard demographics = presumptively pretty decent, while the same cannot be said for the nonprob polls (which can be good with great effort or absolute trash) — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Feb. 3, 2023
Profile Image

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@nataliemj10 if you have a better way to show 'good' v. 'bad' polls on a chart like this, other than my subjective characterizations (which would call, say, YouGov Good but might call Suffolk BAD), I'm all ears — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Feb. 3, 2023
Profile Image

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Is Trump way up or way down? The polls are extraordinarily split, but the higher-quality surveys suggest he might be pretty weak. https://t.co/3ABGKid5VU https://t.co/ChO0jv7Gzc — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Feb. 3, 2023
Profile Image

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@tbonier that's not really how it works. i haven't done the analysis yet, but i fear the likelier explanation is that the sample was indeed deeply problematic and we were lucky that turnout and nonresponse biases largely cancelled out — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Feb. 2, 2023
Profile Image

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @LoganDobson: pro bowl punting from Mitch at least — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Jan. 29, 2023 Retweet
Profile Image

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Do you regularly use chatGPT or another AI tool for work? — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Jan. 26, 2023
Profile Image

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@aaronstrauss @MichaelPodhorz2 yeah, absolutely. it's hard to turn this into a MAGA dummy. but clearly there were a series of competitive states where trump tried to overturn the last election and where MAGA types were running to do it for real, and dems did well in those states — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Jan. 18, 2023
Profile Image

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@aaronstrauss @MichaelPodhorz2 i do think national media discussion of crime (portland v. denver) could be the/a missing variable in the blue states where MAGA obviously wasn't at stake. but hard to model state effects on n=50 so i'm willing to accept an imperfect explanation — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Jan. 18, 2023
Profile Image

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@aaronstrauss @MichaelPodhorz2 i think there are very clear state effects downballot; i think they are loosely correlated with democracy/MAGA but it's not perfect (CO v. OR being an example) — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Jan. 18, 2023
Profile Image

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@Wertwhile didn't look at age — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Jan. 17, 2023
Profile Image

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

We still don't have data from Pennsylvania, where I am interested to see whether we might get a different story. After that, the final/next question is whether there is a different story at the individual-level, perhaps due to educational polarization or something else — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Jan. 17, 2023
Profile Image

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

We now have final turnout data for all of the jurisdictions with historic turnout data by party going back to at least 2004: NC, IA, LA, KY, Clark (NV), Pinellas (FL). Overall, the GOP enjoyed a turnout edge much like recent GOP midterms, with ~ R+5 electorate v. RVs https://t.co/ARZKpnukEl — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Jan. 17, 2023
Profile Image

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @Neil_Irwin: In the final three months of 2022, core inflation was running at a 3.1% annual rate, which is a little on the hot side but… — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Jan. 12, 2023 Retweet
Profile Image

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@baseballot and has anyone ever been disqualified for nondisclosure of funding? — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Jan. 10, 2023
Profile Image

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@baseballot (or nondisclosure of funding) — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Jan. 10, 2023
Profile Image

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@baseballot but no one is newly disqualified under it, i assume? is there a case where a pollster has been disqualified for nontransparency on weighting/mode/voter file source ( as opposed to non-methodological questions like release dates/call center location/sample size, etc) — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Jan. 10, 2023
Profile Image

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@baseballot are any prominent firms newly disqualified under this 'basic questions' standard? — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Jan. 10, 2023