Nate Cohn

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@xenocryptsite i think that's the point — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

https://t.co/9mFChTyIPN — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@davidshor @SeanTrende i drove across the MO-IA border just bc there's often a modest demographic/electoral discontinuity there. i hit a deer like 10 mi before :( — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@B_M_Finnigan @SeanTrende for sure, though the one night i actually slept in WY i slept in a walmart parking lot in a town with an ongoing rodeo and it was really, really bright — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@SeanTrende (also bc i wasn't going to make it to laramie without starving) — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@SeanTrende i got mcdonalds there once just bc clinton won it twice — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@Bencjacobs i got mcdonalds in green river once — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@aaronstrauss @LtabCapital @Ejmiller25 @DouglasLukasik idk, they've done plenty of telephone polling in recent years. and while i don't mind experimentation, i do have a problem with trotting out a 70% col sample that's been rake weighted on like four demographic variables and pretending we should care about it — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@pollhannes @kabir_here @lennybronner @Wertwhile clear enough — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@pollhannes @kabir_here @lennybronner err 4* — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@pollhannes @kabir_here @lennybronner add a WA-3 and 5 control / exclude WA-3 and 5 while you're at it — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @vest_team: It's finally here! 🥳 A national precinct map! Explore the 2020 presidential election here https://t.co/4SHaGs8b4U — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@aaronstrauss @LtabCapital @Ejmiller25 @DouglasLukasik i think it's embarrassing. data quality matters — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @otis_reid: @jon_m_rob Must be 79% college unweighted, which probably tells you a lot about the poll — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Yeah, in fairness to the reporters in Jackson: I'm just jealous https://t.co/bRUoPLSwmE — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

It's kind of amusing to see everyone camped out in Jackson Hole for the Wyoming primary tonight. It's as they say: as goes Jackson Hole, so goes... maybe a couple of other precincts in Laramie — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@NickRiccardi idk, to be clear. the other numbers don't seem as odd. but it might! — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@NickRiccardi pretty unusual design here that may not be reflective of the typical poll (emailing a list of registered voters) — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @charlie_savage: NYT lawyer @davidmccraw reminds me of this line from a 2018 2nd Circuit opinion in a FOIA lawsuit the NYT lost. We cont… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@SeanTrende WA-08, obviously. i think it's a perfectly good answer, but i'll also toss out CO-08 to avoid any appearance of bias — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@pollhannes OTOH, i think the answer on the second is pretty plainly 'no'--at least if we're framing this in terms of whether we think the House is a tossup. But 538 doesn't really think that either--the 538 forecast is R+4 on the popular vote — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@pollhannes i think the answer on the first is pretty plainly 'yes' at this point, and it's not just the special elections. the generic ballot polls show more-or-less the same thing, caveats about recent polling errors and LV/RV issues aside. the horse race polls show the same thing — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@pollhannes there are two separate framings worth considering --is the balance of post-dobbs evidence showing a neutral environment? --is that evidence sufficient to move us off of a fairly strong prior for a GOP year? — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@PatrickRuffini @NateSilver538 bring back the nowcast — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@SJonNantucket i don't think there's a lot to look at tbh. most of it is partisan. and i don't think it's a very clear story, with nonpartisan polls showing a more-or-less tied national vote (and gop polling showing a wave). https://t.co/l7Qs1vOdDJ — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@conorsen it's a noteworthy caveat, given the acute signs of weakness for Democrats among these groups in national polls (and that they're also more conservative on cultural issues than white Democrats) — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

All of these primary/special election-based indicators are hard to interpret with tremendous confidence. I don't read too much into any one of them. But taken together, there fare far fewer signs of the highly favorable GOP environment we saw/expected earlier this cycle — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

The Washington top-two primary is another data-point in this category, but a more plainly healthy one for Democrats IMO. The result is much worse for Democrats than '18 and much better for them than '10/14. It's a lot like 16/20, which would keep Dems in the game for the House — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

The turnout in primary elections is sort of in the middle. It's remained a decent indicator for the GOP, with GOP primary turnout up significantly over '18. But Dem turnout has stayed strong and it's not exactly 10/14, either. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

There are still some good data points for the GOP. Biden's approval rating is one of them. It's entirely consistent with a 'wave' election. It's not hard to explain why Democrats would be defying gravity right now, but gravity is a pretty stubborn force — PolitiTweet.org