Nate Cohn

@Nate_Cohn ↗

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Last Checked Feb. 3, 2022

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Wed Nov 18 15:24:26 +0000 2020

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Now, I don't have the data to decompose exactly what *did* happen. I'm sure there was an unfavorable turnout shift, especially among young voters--and Dems back then were very dependent on young voters. But the core idea that black voters just don't turnout in runoffs seems wrong — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 18, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

By my estimate (since for whatever reason the GA SOS didn't publish it, as they usually do), the Black share of the electorate in the GA special was 27.7 percent Black--it was down a bit from the general (29.9 IIRC), but still quite healthy (and indeed, higher than 2020!) — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 18, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

I believe that's wrong in part because there have been lots of more competitive runoffs in Louisiana, where the Black share of the electorate often increases in runoffs compared to the general! No one should be surprised if that happens here, and that's a real risk to the GOP — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 18, 2020 Hibernated