Nate Cohn

@Nate_Cohn ↗

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Last Checked Feb. 3, 2022

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Wed Nov 18 15:32:15 +0000 2020

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

You can see this in the 2018 runoff for SOS. The turnout plummets, but Democrats only lose by 3.8 pts. The black share of the electorate falls (Abrams no longer top of ticket), but only to 27.4 percent--higher than 2020. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 18, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

More generally, this just isn't 2008's GA electorate. Democrats have a lot more strength at the top of the turnout spectrum, thanks to gains among subrbanites. There are roughly equal numbers of Dem/Rep primary voters, so they can compete in a lower turnout election — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 18, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

The 2018 runoff isn't exactly a best case for Democrats. Turnout fell to ~35% of the 2018 general election. I don't think we expect such a severe dropoff in this runoff. And in this case, a Black candidate is at the top of the ticket--so it's the reverse of 08/18 — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 18, 2020 Hibernated