Nate Cohn

@Nate_Cohn ↗

Deleted No

Hibernated Yes

Last Checked Feb. 3, 2022

Created

Wed Nov 18 15:34:37 +0000 2020

Likes

170

Retweets

Source

Twitter Web App

View Raw Data

JSON Data

View on Twitter

Likely Available

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

The 2018 runoff isn't exactly a best case for Democrats. Turnout fell to ~35% of the 2018 general election. I don't think we expect such a severe dropoff in this runoff. And in this case, a Black candidate is at the top of the ticket--so it's the reverse of 08/18 — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 18, 2020 Hibernated

Preceded By

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

You can see this in the 2018 runoff for SOS. The turnout plummets, but Democrats only lose by 3.8 pts. The black share of the electorate falls (Abrams no longer top of ticket), but only to 27.4 percent--higher than 2020. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 18, 2020 Hibernated

Followed By

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Now, none of this means that the Democrats are clearly favored to win or something. GOP outvoted Dems in both Senate races in the general. But I think Dem chances are being downgraded from ok to a pipedream for reasons that aren't true anymore, even if they were a decade ago — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 18, 2020 Hibernated