Nate Cohn

@Nate_Cohn ↗

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Wed Nov 18 13:26:07 +0000 2020

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

That said, the Times/Siena poll can help us here as well. We know whether our respondents voted, based on the same vote history data. So we can see whether the folks in a given racial group who voted in '16 are much different than those who voted in 2020 — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 18, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

As a result, we can't say--based on this data, at least--that 85% of Biden's gains were due to vote flipping, just because 15% were due to shifts in the topline racial composition of the electorate — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 18, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

The Times/Siena data doesn't really show any meaningful difference in vote choice between those with a 2016 or a 2020 record of voting. Here's the difference by group White -.4 Black -.8 Hispanic +.6 Asian +1.5 Other -1.4 Unknown -1 — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 18, 2020 Deleted Hibernated