Nate Cohn

@Nate_Cohn ↗

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Last Checked Feb. 3, 2022

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Wed Nov 18 13:22:22 +0000 2020

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

As a result, we can't say--based on this data, at least--that 85% of Biden's gains were due to vote flipping, just because 15% were due to shifts in the topline racial composition of the electorate — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 18, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Now that said, it's important to note that 'topline changes' are absolutely not the only changes in the composition of the electorate. It's possible, for instance, that new white residents were more supportive of Biden than older white residents. That's not captured here — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 18, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

That said, the Times/Siena poll can help us here as well. We know whether our respondents voted, based on the same vote history data. So we can see whether the folks in a given racial group who voted in '16 are much different than those who voted in 2020 — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 18, 2020 Hibernated