Nate Cohn

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@ACalouise yeah definitely; basically the same pattern, though formulated the other way — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Anyway, I don't like using the early vote to predict election results and I will make no exception here. I do think it can show changes in the composition of the electorate, and directionally those changes seem favorable to Dems. Favorable enough? We won't know until it's over — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

One could make this argument the other way, though. If the GOP was particularly depressed in early voting in the runoff v. the general, there may be more upside for them to outperform the general election turnout model on Election Day — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

The challenge for Perdue, of course, is that this is a 2020 general election turnout model. So far, Democrats and esp. Black voters have plainly outperformed the general election in the early vote. If they outperform on Election Day too, then Perdue needs a greater turnout — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

If you use the 2020 general election day turnout model, you wind up getting Perdue to a win somewhere over a million Election Day votes--more than November--as total turnout approaches 4.2 million (which doesn't seem crazy) — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Perdue wins by more this time with the same turnout model since there are a bunch of extra highly reliable GOP voters hanging around who weren't out there heading into election day in November. But even this wouldn't be enough--would need something more than 917k eday voters — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

How much does that help? Well, let's take a model of Election Day vote in November, applied to the current set of votes who remain, and calibrate overall turnout at 81% of Nov. levels (early voting pace, adj. for holidays). That would mean 917k votes, Perdue at 68% and +323k — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

So now Perdue would need 350k votes to fight back to a tie. What would that look like? Well it would entail something more than Nov., when he won by 218k votes on Election Day with nearly 62% of the mjr vote. Of course, the strong Dem turnout means there are more GOPers left now — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

One rough way to see: in the gen, Ossoff won 51.6^ of the major party advance vote, and Dem primary voters represented 49.9 percent of the advance vote. In runoff, it was D53.1 yesterday, projected to 53.4 after mail done. That 3.5 pt shift + 51.6 = 55.1%; our estimate is 55.5. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

There's some fuzziness on any estimate like this, of course. But the fundamentals here are pretty straightforward, and clear to anyone with a voter file, based on the partisan makeup of the vote and the vigorous Black turnout. It's confirmed in our NYT/Siena poll data as well — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Let's stipulate for this whole discussion that absolutely no one has changed their vote since the election. If so, then our estimate is that Ossoff will amass a lead of around 350k out of the advance vote, including what he'll net out of ~100k absentee votes still to arrive — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Let's talk about what the GOP, and more specifically David Perdue, needs to do on Election Day in order to prevail. It's nothing impossible, in my view. But it's worth thinking through where the GOP burden stands after the strong Democratic early vote in Georgia — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

you'll note, for instance, that voters who turned out for early voting last time but haven't voted yet (iepv, none) are very trumpy. those who voted absentee both times are very democratic — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

the first column is method of voting in the general election (abs = absentee mail; eday = election day; ipev = in person early voting; none = stayed home) and the second is method of voting in the runoff so far. the third column is the share of major party voters who backed Biden — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Kind of fun: how NYT/Siena respondents with major party vote preference turned out in the general and runoff, by method of voting https://t.co/MQDaRwNp6K — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

It's worth noting the mechanism here: throw out enough states to deny Biden 270 (though note Biden still won the most votes and electoral votes outside of the "contested" states), so it goes to the House which votes Trump — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

As with the other allegations, they then go further: they not only aspire to invalidate the election but hand it to the loser, even though no one even attempts to argue Trump won these states (as opposed to asserting there were imperfections in election administration) — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

This version, however, is a relatively bold one--as everything cited here was known before the election, and neither he nor anyone else argued that we should disenfranchise Pennsylvania's electorate until he saw that Trump lost — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

This is fairly typical of the allegations raised by the Trump legal team (as opposed to his twitter team) over the last month: ok, fine more folks voted for Biden, but the state didn't follow their laws to our liking, so give the election to Trump https://t.co/lW2voDmWY8 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Likeliest arguments, off hand: --Divided government vote helps P --Libertarian vt shifts P --Stimulus checks help O --Fraud assertions helps O with the Biden-Perdue vote — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Leaving turnout aside, what's your best guess of whether and how the preferences of Georgia voters have shifted on the Ossoff-Perdue race since the November election — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

I'd appreciate it if the letter includes an allegation to investigate. You know, a who/when/where/how. Say what you will about chavez-from-the-grave-hacks-dominion, but at least it put forward a theory of the case--something the Trump team refuses to do https://t.co/HwWzi2bEuk — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@conorsen i suppose that betrays that they don't have a clue either — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@conorsen lol a lot of movement for a thread that began and ended on idfk — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

As I said at the outset, I have no idea what the turnout will be. But to me, these heuristics have a median around 4.1-4.2 million, with a longer right tail / higher mean — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Another thing to consider is the composition of the early vote: it *looks* a lot like a general electorate. It's young. Lots of irregular voters. If these were the numbers in Oct. not sure anyone would have wildly axed their turnout estimates https://t.co/QP047oJJHL — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

I'm not sure how much to adjust for lost days. I'd sure think someone's researched this for litigation purposes, if nothing else. I'll look into it over the weekend (links, anyone?) — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Early voting has been particularly Dem. By our estimates, early voting turnout among Biden voters is at 84% of the general election pace. If you think that persists on Election Day, then you wind up at something like 2.1m Biden voters, even if you don't adjust for lost days — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Early voting has been particularly Dem. By our estimates, early voting turnout among Biden voters is at 84% of general election levels. If you think that persists on Election Day, then you wind up at something like 2.1 million Biden voters, even if you don't adjust for lost days — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Early voting has been particularly Democratic. By our estimates, early voting turnout among Biden voters is at 84% of general election levels. If you think that persists on Election Day, then you wind up with something like 2.1 million Biden voters — PolitiTweet.org