Nate Cohn

@Nate_Cohn ↗

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Last Checked Feb. 9, 2022

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Sun Jan 03 16:21:31 +0000 2021

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

There's some fuzziness on any estimate like this, of course. But the fundamentals here are pretty straightforward, and clear to anyone with a voter file, based on the partisan makeup of the vote and the vigorous Black turnout. It's confirmed in our NYT/Siena poll data as well — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Jan. 3, 2021 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Let's stipulate for this whole discussion that absolutely no one has changed their vote since the election. If so, then our estimate is that Ossoff will amass a lead of around 350k out of the advance vote, including what he'll net out of ~100k absentee votes still to arrive — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Jan. 3, 2021 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

One rough way to see: in the gen, Ossoff won 51.6^ of the major party advance vote, and Dem primary voters represented 49.9 percent of the advance vote. In runoff, it was D53.1 yesterday, projected to 53.4 after mail done. That 3.5 pt shift + 51.6 = 55.1%; our estimate is 55.5. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Jan. 3, 2021 Hibernated