Nate Cohn

@Nate_Cohn ↗

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Last Checked Feb. 9, 2022

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Sun Jan 03 16:25:52 +0000 2021

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

One rough way to see: in the gen, Ossoff won 51.6^ of the major party advance vote, and Dem primary voters represented 49.9 percent of the advance vote. In runoff, it was D53.1 yesterday, projected to 53.4 after mail done. That 3.5 pt shift + 51.6 = 55.1%; our estimate is 55.5. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Jan. 3, 2021 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

There's some fuzziness on any estimate like this, of course. But the fundamentals here are pretty straightforward, and clear to anyone with a voter file, based on the partisan makeup of the vote and the vigorous Black turnout. It's confirmed in our NYT/Siena poll data as well — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Jan. 3, 2021 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

So now Perdue would need 350k votes to fight back to a tie. What would that look like? Well it would entail something more than Nov., when he won by 218k votes on Election Day with nearly 62% of the mjr vote. Of course, the strong Dem turnout means there are more GOPers left now — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Jan. 3, 2021 Hibernated