Nate Cohn

@Nate_Cohn ↗

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Last Checked Feb. 9, 2022

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Sun Jan 03 16:39:09 +0000 2021

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Perdue wins by more this time with the same turnout model since there are a bunch of extra highly reliable GOP voters hanging around who weren't out there heading into election day in November. But even this wouldn't be enough--would need something more than 917k eday voters — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Jan. 3, 2021 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

How much does that help? Well, let's take a model of Election Day vote in November, applied to the current set of votes who remain, and calibrate overall turnout at 81% of Nov. levels (early voting pace, adj. for holidays). That would mean 917k votes, Perdue at 68% and +323k — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Jan. 3, 2021 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

If you use the 2020 general election day turnout model, you wind up getting Perdue to a win somewhere over a million Election Day votes--more than November--as total turnout approaches 4.2 million (which doesn't seem crazy) — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Jan. 3, 2021 Hibernated