Nate Cohn

@Nate_Cohn ↗

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Last Checked Feb. 9, 2022

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Sun Jan 03 16:40:38 +0000 2021

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

If you use the 2020 general election day turnout model, you wind up getting Perdue to a win somewhere over a million Election Day votes--more than November--as total turnout approaches 4.2 million (which doesn't seem crazy) — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Jan. 3, 2021 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Perdue wins by more this time with the same turnout model since there are a bunch of extra highly reliable GOP voters hanging around who weren't out there heading into election day in November. But even this wouldn't be enough--would need something more than 917k eday voters — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Jan. 3, 2021 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

The challenge for Perdue, of course, is that this is a 2020 general election turnout model. So far, Democrats and esp. Black voters have plainly outperformed the general election in the early vote. If they outperform on Election Day too, then Perdue needs a greater turnout — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Jan. 3, 2021 Hibernated