Nate Cohn

@Nate_Cohn ↗

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Last Checked Feb. 9, 2022

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Sun Jan 03 16:41:42 +0000 2021

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

The challenge for Perdue, of course, is that this is a 2020 general election turnout model. So far, Democrats and esp. Black voters have plainly outperformed the general election in the early vote. If they outperform on Election Day too, then Perdue needs a greater turnout — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Jan. 3, 2021 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

If you use the 2020 general election day turnout model, you wind up getting Perdue to a win somewhere over a million Election Day votes--more than November--as total turnout approaches 4.2 million (which doesn't seem crazy) — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Jan. 3, 2021 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

One could make this argument the other way, though. If the GOP was particularly depressed in early voting in the runoff v. the general, there may be more upside for them to outperform the general election turnout model on Election Day — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Jan. 3, 2021 Hibernated