Nate Cohn

@Nate_Cohn ↗

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Last Checked Feb. 9, 2022

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Sat Jan 02 01:15:58 +0000 2021

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Another thing to consider is the composition of the early vote: it *looks* a lot like a general electorate. It's young. Lots of irregular voters. If these were the numbers in Oct. not sure anyone would have wildly axed their turnout estimates https://t.co/QP047oJJHL — PolitiTweet.org

And here's the same table but for all advance votes, including mail absentee https://t.co/lkUTeeQiNA

Posted Jan. 2, 2021 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

I'm not sure how much to adjust for lost days. I'd sure think someone's researched this for litigation purposes, if nothing else. I'll look into it over the weekend (links, anyone?) — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Jan. 2, 2021 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

As I said at the outset, I have no idea what the turnout will be. But to me, these heuristics have a median around 4.1-4.2 million, with a longer right tail / higher mean — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Jan. 2, 2021 Hibernated