Nate Cohn

@Nate_Cohn ↗

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Last Checked Feb. 9, 2022

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Sat Jan 02 01:20:05 +0000 2021

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

As I said at the outset, I have no idea what the turnout will be. But to me, these heuristics have a median around 4.1-4.2 million, with a longer right tail / higher mean — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Jan. 2, 2021 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Another thing to consider is the composition of the early vote: it *looks* a lot like a general electorate. It's young. Lots of irregular voters. If these were the numbers in Oct. not sure anyone would have wildly axed their turnout estimates https://t.co/QP047oJJHL — PolitiTweet.org

And here's the same table but for all advance votes, including mail absentee https://t.co/lkUTeeQiNA

Posted Jan. 2, 2021 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@conorsen lol a lot of movement for a thread that began and ended on idfk — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Jan. 2, 2021 Hibernated