Nate Silver

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Observations: Not sure people realize the extent to which the Northeast is becoming more diverse (except Maine/NH/VT which rank toward the bottom of the list). MN is diversifying more quickly than WI and MI, which might hedge against it becoming a tipping-point state like WI/MI. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Which states have seen the largest increase in the nonwhite share of their population since 2010? NV +5.9 CT +5.3 ND +5.2 MA +5.0 WA +5.0 RI +5.0 MD +4.7 NJ +4.7 FL +4.7 TX +4.1 MN +4.0 GA +3.9 AK +3.9 NE +3.9 PA +3.8 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

To some extent, this applies to all of society and not just college. People may say they think there needs to be social distancing. But they won't find it easy to maintain social distancing themselves, unless they perceive their own risk to be high. So it can't be our only tool. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Plus, given how high current rates of infection are, plateaus are bad news. There were around 60K cases reported in Florida this week. And say we're catching around ~1/5 of infections. That means ~300K people per week getting infected in FL. Plateauing at 300K/week is not good! — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

There were quite a lot of tests reported today, particularly in Florida, and in some states, the positive test rate seems to be plateauing. But, so far optimism about plateaus has not "aged very well"; you'll think you've hit one, then you get some worse numbers the next day. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

While the number of deaths might seem comparatively low, Sundays are usually slow for reporting, and in fact this is the most deaths reported on a Sunday since 5/31. So, pretty bad news. With that said, we're still learning about the reporting patterns of the current hotspots. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

US daily numbers via @COVID19Tracking: Newly reported deaths Today: 476 Yesterday: 757 One week ago (7/5): 209 Newly reported cases T: 61K Y: 63K 7/5: 43K Newly reported tests T: 729K Y: 634K 7/5: 657K Positive test rate T: 8.4% Y: 9.9% 7/5: 6.5% — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

But this isn't rocket science. Senate seats last for 6 years. Redistricting lasts for 10 years. The change in the media narrative because Biden happened to have a marginally prettier-looking map might last for a few weeks. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I am also convinced that the difference between, say, 52 and 53 Democratic senate seats could matter. And state legislative races could matter a lot given the impact on redistricting. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

...but the states that could flip in a somewhat close election (say, North Carolina) are probably places where you want to be invested anyway, just because it's hard to guess exactly what the tipping-point states will be ahead of time. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I am more convinced that the difference between a *very* close election that isn't called for several days/weeks and a *somewhat* close election (say, a 5 point Biden popular vote margin called within 24 hours) could matter... — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I am just not convinced that, if Biden wins the election by 8 points or something, whether he happens to win say Ohio or Georgia as a part of that would really make much difference in the long run. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

And keep in mind that when the numbers were rising in the spring, at least we knew that lockdowns meant they would probably eventually start to come back down. Not the case this time. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

The comparison to last Saturday is somewhat misleading since it was a holiday weekend. But the number of deaths *two* Saturdays ago was 509 and we are also way up from that. Just no good news here, and the positive test rate keeps climbing. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

US daily numbers via @COVID19Tracking Newly reported deaths Today: 757 Yesterday: 854 One week ago (7/4): 306 Newly reported cases T: 63K Y: 67K 7/4: 52K Newly reported tests T: 634K Y: 823K 7/4: 642K Positive test rate T: 9.9% Y: 8.1% 7/4: 8.1% — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @ABC: "There are some times when despite the guidelines and the recommendations to open up carefully and prudently, some states skipped… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

We did see a record number of test results reported, which may reflect a backlog as it's now taking a while to process tests given high demand for testing. That backlog could make it harder to know precisely whether things are getting better or worse at any given moment. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I mean... kinda speaks for itself. Looks like deaths are on the rise again and it's not just lingering effects from the holiday weekend. That's what's going to happen if you go from 20K cases a day to 60K+, even if a lower *share* of cases result in deaths than in the spring. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

US daily numbers via @COVID19Tracking: Newly reported deaths Today: 854 Yesterday: 867 One week ago (7/3): 624 Newly reported cases T: 67K* Y: 59K 7/3: 57K Newly reported tests T: 847K* Y: 637K 7/3: 719K Positive test rate T: 7.9% Y: 9.2% 7/3: 8.0% * record — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

But the media only considers polls "wrong" if one candidate is ahead and the other one wins, even if the miss is within the margin of error (as it was, more or less, in 2016). If Biden's ahead by 6 in the final polls and wins by 13, nobody will ask what went wrong with the polls. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

There had been years where polls were fairly far off the mark. In 1980, Reagan was just barely ahead in final polls but won in a landslide. In 1996, Clinton underperformed his polls but still won convincingly. State polls were a bit off in 2000. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

It's tempting to say "people only remember the last election". But one thing about 2016 is there hadn't been a recent presidential election where the polls had "called" the winner wrong* (you have to go back to 1948), so it'll probably stick in people's heads for awhile. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Also, while the uncertainty is undoubtedly wide enough to include some Trump wins, it's very much bidirectional; it's not hard to imagine scenarios where things get worse for Trump, which could lead to some very large (e.g. low-to-mid teens in the popular vote) Biden wins. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Uncertainty around the outcome of the election is high, but it's high for different reasons than at the end of 2016. It's high mostly because there's a fairly long way to go and there's a lot of weighty news that could (at least in theory) swing things in either direction. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Since data folks are accused of failing to account for real-world context: reporters should look at the real world when writing poll stories like this! More than 130K Americans are dead of a pandemic the president said would go away. Not hard to explain why he's down by 9 points. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

But one of the basic things that people screwed up in 2016 is that the election was *pretty freakin' close* at various points, including at the end of the campaign. Clinton went into Election Day with a 2-3 point lead in the average tipping point state. That's highly competitive. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

If polls were off by *twice* as much as in 2016, then it starts to matter a bit more where the errors occurred and the election gets competitive, though Biden probably a narrow favorite. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

If polls underestimated Trump to the same extent they did in 2016 (by ~3-ish points in the average swing state) then Biden would still win MI, WI, PA and FL in an election held today, and AZ, NC, OH and GA would be toss-ups. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@No_Little_Plans @Crimealytics Because Rt declines are more people have gotten COVID and are (at least in the short run) immune. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@TheStalwart NYC is probably not the best place to look for the impact of [protests] [reopenings] [pretty much anything really] because ~25% seroprevalence dampens opportunities for the virus to spread. That's *not* to say it's achieved herd immunity yet but 25% can have a noticeable impact. — PolitiTweet.org