Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked Dec. 11, 2020

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Fri Jul 10 18:39:00 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

If polls were off by *twice* as much as in 2016, then it starts to matter a bit more where the errors occurred and the election gets competitive, though Biden probably a narrow favorite. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 10, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

If polls underestimated Trump to the same extent they did in 2016 (by ~3-ish points in the average swing state) then Biden would still win MI, WI, PA and FL in an election held today, and AZ, NC, OH and GA would be toss-ups. — PolitiTweet.org

🚨 DON’T BELIEVE THE POLLS showing a Biden blowout, Elissa Slotkin warns fellow Dems🚨 She thinks the data is dead… https://t.co/RkoS0U4Gel

Posted July 10, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

But one of the basic things that people screwed up in 2016 is that the election was *pretty freakin' close* at various points, including at the end of the campaign. Clinton went into Election Day with a 2-3 point lead in the average tipping point state. That's highly competitive. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 10, 2020 Hibernated