Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked Dec. 11, 2020

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Fri Jul 10 18:42:38 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

But one of the basic things that people screwed up in 2016 is that the election was *pretty freakin' close* at various points, including at the end of the campaign. Clinton went into Election Day with a 2-3 point lead in the average tipping point state. That's highly competitive. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 10, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

If polls were off by *twice* as much as in 2016, then it starts to matter a bit more where the errors occurred and the election gets competitive, though Biden probably a narrow favorite. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 10, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Since data folks are accused of failing to account for real-world context: reporters should look at the real world when writing poll stories like this! More than 130K Americans are dead of a pandemic the president said would go away. Not hard to explain why he's down by 9 points. — PolitiTweet.org

If polls underestimated Trump to the same extent they did in 2016 (by ~3-ish points in the average swing state) the… https://t.co/rNZQAYr8pZ

Posted July 10, 2020 Hibernated