Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

Deleted No

Hibernated Yes

Last Checked Dec. 30, 2020

Created

Fri Jul 10 20:22:08 +0000 2020

Likes

292

Retweets

Source

Twitter Web App

View Raw Data

JSON Data

View on Twitter

Likely Available

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

There had been years where polls were fairly far off the mark. In 1980, Reagan was just barely ahead in final polls but won in a landslide. In 1996, Clinton underperformed his polls but still won convincingly. State polls were a bit off in 2000. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 10, 2020 Hibernated

Preceded By

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

It's tempting to say "people only remember the last election". But one thing about 2016 is there hadn't been a recent presidential election where the polls had "called" the winner wrong* (you have to go back to 1948), so it'll probably stick in people's heads for awhile. — PolitiTweet.org

suppose the poll error in 2020 isn't huge, biden wins, and the polls "called" the race correctly do people keep d… https://t.co/2ZhKazMcg0

Posted July 10, 2020 Hibernated

Followed By

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

But the media only considers polls "wrong" if one candidate is ahead and the other one wins, even if the miss is within the margin of error (as it was, more or less, in 2016). If Biden's ahead by 6 in the final polls and wins by 13, nobody will ask what went wrong with the polls. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 10, 2020 Hibernated