Tweet by @NateSilver538

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

It's tempting to say "people only remember the last election". But one thing about 2016 is there hadn't been a recent presidential election where the polls had "called" the winner wrong* (you have to go back to 1948), so it'll probably stick in people's heads for awhile. — PolitiTweet.org

suppose the poll error in 2020 isn't huge, biden wins, and the polls "called" the race correctly do people keep d… https://t.co/2ZhKazMcg0

Posted July 10, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Also, while the uncertainty is undoubtedly wide enough to include some Trump wins, it's very much bidirectional; it's not hard to imagine scenarios where things get worse for Trump, which could lead to some very large (e.g. low-to-mid teens in the popular vote) Biden wins. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 10, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

There had been years where polls were fairly far off the mark. In 1980, Reagan was just barely ahead in final polls but won in a landslide. In 1996, Clinton underperformed his polls but still won convincingly. State polls were a bit off in 2000. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 10, 2020 Hibernated