Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked Dec. 30, 2020

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Fri Jul 10 19:38:58 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Also, while the uncertainty is undoubtedly wide enough to include some Trump wins, it's very much bidirectional; it's not hard to imagine scenarios where things get worse for Trump, which could lead to some very large (e.g. low-to-mid teens in the popular vote) Biden wins. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 10, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Uncertainty around the outcome of the election is high, but it's high for different reasons than at the end of 2016. It's high mostly because there's a fairly long way to go and there's a lot of weighty news that could (at least in theory) swing things in either direction. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 10, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

It's tempting to say "people only remember the last election". But one thing about 2016 is there hadn't been a recent presidential election where the polls had "called" the winner wrong* (you have to go back to 1948), so it'll probably stick in people's heads for awhile. — PolitiTweet.org

suppose the poll error in 2020 isn't huge, biden wins, and the polls "called" the race correctly do people keep d… https://t.co/2ZhKazMcg0

Posted July 10, 2020 Hibernated