Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked Dec. 11, 2020

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Fri Jul 10 19:31:10 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Uncertainty around the outcome of the election is high, but it's high for different reasons than at the end of 2016. It's high mostly because there's a fairly long way to go and there's a lot of weighty news that could (at least in theory) swing things in either direction. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 10, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Since data folks are accused of failing to account for real-world context: reporters should look at the real world when writing poll stories like this! More than 130K Americans are dead of a pandemic the president said would go away. Not hard to explain why he's down by 9 points. — PolitiTweet.org

If polls underestimated Trump to the same extent they did in 2016 (by ~3-ish points in the average swing state) the… https://t.co/rNZQAYr8pZ

Posted July 10, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Also, while the uncertainty is undoubtedly wide enough to include some Trump wins, it's very much bidirectional; it's not hard to imagine scenarios where things get worse for Trump, which could lead to some very large (e.g. low-to-mid teens in the popular vote) Biden wins. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 10, 2020 Hibernated