Nate Silver

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

We're liveblogging the vice presidential debate, which probably isn't *that* high stakes but a bit more so than usual. https://t.co/kqLqtlltJk — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@BrendanNyhan *Inflated by partisan non-response bias* and *temporary because the news cycle will revert to the mean* are two different things. You suggested the former, I made some arguments against it. It's pretty annoying to accuse me of strawmanning when you're obfuscating what you said. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

The other thing I don't love about the obsession with partisan non-response bias is that if you're feeling too despondent about the election to answer a pollster's phone call, I'd also imagine you're less likely to turn out to vote. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

And is it *that* hard to believe that a winning a debate + the president catching COVID (along with a dozen other people in the WH) while obviously not taking enough precautions would move the polls by 2-3 points? That's a pretty small move, all things considered. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

If I had to guess, I'd take the under on Biden's current 9.5 (!) point lead. But I don't know. The polls show Biden doing super duper well among independents and those propel his big leads despite pretty decent numbers for Republicans on party ID. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I wonder if there's a category of voter who's like "you know, I don't completely blame Trump for COVID and all the stuff the liberal media talks about, but he's just kind of a loudmouth who isn't taking any of this seriously and I'm tired of the constant shitshow". — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Also an interesting split here between Trump's approval (-5) and his favorability (-11) which is sort of the opposite of what you might expect if he were getting a sympathy bounce. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

The topline here is bad for Trump (Biden +10) but also lots of evidence for why his messaging on COVID is terrible (from a political as well as public health standpoint). https://t.co/FqmFhQOJ56 https://t.co/nu8p8CS3TE — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Florida's also had a lot of issues with COVID, with the 3rd highest number of cases per capita in the country, and Biden was polling quite well there in June/July when it was going through a huge surge in cases. So if COVID is now more central again, that could have some effects. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

There are some counters. It's Trump's adopted home state. Democrats have lost a lot of close elections there. It feels subjectively MAGA-y, I suppose. But what if Biden's gains with seniors hold up but Trump's gains with Hispanics don't? Suddenly FL could be the tipping point. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I think you could construct an argument why Florida is a good state for Biden. He seems to be doing much better than Clinton with older white voters. It has a lot of self-ID'ed independents, a Biden strength. He did well there in the primary. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

The one real exception in the state polls is Florida, where Biden now leads by +4.6 and which has moved closer to the tipping point. That gives Biden a good backup plan if something goes wrong in the Midwest. Also makes an election night call more likely. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Biden does seem to be running a little hot in national polls relative to state polls. He's had lots of *good* state polls and *some* eye-popping ones (Quinnipiac today), whereas there are lots of fireworks going off in the national polls. This is likely just random variation. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

He's up 9.5 in our average but I'm too lazy to look up whether it would round up to 10 or down to 9. It's a big lead. https://t.co/cy51vc5isJ — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @donnellymjd: Another way to think about this: The GOP has about a 2.5 percentage point advantage from the Electoral College. https://t.… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Our current polling averages in the most likely tipping-point states: National: Biden +9.4 PA: Biden +6.9 FL: Biden +4.5 WI: Biden +6.9 MI: Biden +7.7 AZ: Biden +4.6 NC: Biden +2.3 MN: Biden +9.5 NV: Biden +6.6 OH: Biden +0.7 GA: Biden +1.0 https://t.co/cy51vc5isJ — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Biden's actually had quite a few +4s/+5s/+6s in Florida lately, although Suffolk showed a tie there yesterday. But it's among the states where he's seen a clearer uptick in this recent stretch, which could make sense if he's making big gains among seniors. https://t.co/nWUo9X5F4y — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

These Quinnipiac polls (Biden +13 in PA, +11 in FL and +5 in IA) are in "epic landslide" territory, on the other hand, although note that Q-pac has often had good results for BIden this year. https://t.co/bt4UXI4dWC — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

You wouldn't describe a -5 in Wisconsin, a -1 in Ohio or a -6 in Nevada as good for Trump exactly, but they're more consistent with the old normal (Trump down 7/8 nationally) than the seemingly new normal (down 9/10). — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @onyxfish: The trifecta is complete! Beautiful work from the entire @FiveThirtyEight Interactives team and everyone else who supports ou… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @juruwolfe: Our last forecast of 2020 is up, with a beautiful cartogram and everything: https://t.co/7i1aKfXCLk https://t.co/xxy2iB1kul — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @FiveThirtyEight: OUR 2020 HOUSE FORECAST IS LIVE. https://t.co/JUeRCPgt2w — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Our House forecast is up! Democrats are pretty big favorites (93%) to keep the House. https://t.co/QKlcUIOE0s https://t.co/l08MbFwf6c — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Donald Trump is getting absolutely, completely crushed in the polls right now. They point toward the biggest landslide since 1984. Despite that, he has about a 17% chance of winning, which isn't bad. Why? The polls might be wrong! https://t.co/ajG88SznSA — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

This is one of the dumbest misconceptions about probabilistic models. The 538 model doesn't assume that polls are right. It does exactly the opposite: **it tells you the chance that the polls will be wrong**. https://t.co/BPVRsBNpWk https://t.co/Tt038PVDz1 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

None of this is *surprising* I guess but this all feels very world-historic. These events will be remembered for a very long time and so will the people (like Haberman) who were the best at chronicling them. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

But here's where there's some ambiguity: I'd guess that Biden would be up by a bit more like 9 points if every pollster released a national poll today. But, there's likely to be some mean-reversion. Technically, our average tries to guess what polls will say for the next 2 weeks. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Biden's lead in our national polling average is now up to an even 9 points and TBH if anything that feels a little conservative. Post-debate national polls published today showed +16, +14, +12, +10, +9, and +8. The USC tracker is also up to Biden +11/12. https://t.co/cy51vc5isJ https://t.co/hvBW5qzX95 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Me, on the implications of Trump ending stimulus talks. https://t.co/3NJkBPc0qa — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

FWIW, we estimate that a 9-point win today would be tantamount to a 16-point win in 1932 or 17-point win in 1980 given higher polarization. It is not easy to be behind by 9 points as an incumbent in a highly polarized environment. — PolitiTweet.org