Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked May 30, 2021

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Wed Oct 07 23:48:13 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

And is it *that* hard to believe that a winning a debate + the president catching COVID (along with a dozen other people in the WH) while obviously not taking enough precautions would move the polls by 2-3 points? That's a pretty small move, all things considered. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 7, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

If I had to guess, I'd take the under on Biden's current 9.5 (!) point lead. But I don't know. The polls show Biden doing super duper well among independents and those propel his big leads despite pretty decent numbers for Republicans on party ID. — PolitiTweet.org

Putting a marker down: Biden's lead is likely inflated by partisan non-response & terrible stretch of news for Trum… https://t.co/mW8nM…

Posted Oct. 7, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

The other thing I don't love about the obsession with partisan non-response bias is that if you're feeling too despondent about the election to answer a pollster's phone call, I'd also imagine you're less likely to turn out to vote. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 7, 2020 Hibernated