Nate Silver

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Biden's lead doesn't magically go from "safe" to "unsafe" based on some ad hoc comparison to 2016. This all exists along a probabilistic spectrum. And that cuts in both directions. Even if Biden's position is stronger (it is) there could be a *larger* polling error than in 2016. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

It's possible! That's why Trump has a 12% chance of winning and not zero. But there's no particular reason to *expect* that as opposed to, say, a polling miss that favors Biden instead. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

There are a lot of, IMO, fairly inconsequential arguments about how Biden's current standing in the polls compares to Clinton's at this point in 2016. If, as in 2016, there's a 3-point swing toward Trump in the closing days *and* a 3-point error in Trump's favor it'll be close! — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@Timodc @ianbassin @Nate_Cohn @benensonj @Redistrict Yeah his notion that polling is sort of a patchwork quilt where you need to draw together respondents from different modes to get the sample right is highly..unconventional...and seems like it would leave a lot of room for subjectivity and confirmation bias. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Also worth revisiting the old @Nate_Cohn critique of PPP. Not because PPP is necessarily still up to this, but because it shows how a pollster can be collecting real data but applying dubious assumptions to it rather than letting the data speak for itself. https://t.co/4MO3d1b2p8 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

This interview with Trafalgar Group really worried me, for instance. These are not conventional polling methods and it sounds like they provide a lot of room for subjectivity or frankly confirmation bias in how one constructs a voter universe. https://t.co/EqeMJHzLhP https://t.co/RpL9eda2B2 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I don't want to paint all of these firms with the same brush. Civiqs is doing good work, I think. But I have to say... with *some* of these firms, it feels like they're very self-conscious about what their numbers say relative to 538/RCP averages and I don't love that. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

There are also a lot of quasi-partisan state polls in the form of, say, Trafalgar or InsiderAdvantage on the R-leaning side, or Civiqs and PPP on the D-leaning side. Some of their polls officially get classified as partisan by 538 and some do not, depending on who the sponsor is. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

The non-live state polls are a weird mix. Certainly some of the higher-quality online polls (e.g. YouGov or Ipsos) are worth paying attention to, although some of them (especially YouGov) tend to do a lot of weighting in ways that make them very steady relative to other polls. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Online and IVR state polls tend not to show that much change since the debate. Maybe they imply that Biden is +8 nationally or so. Some of the live-caller state polls we do have could be consistent with a larger Biden lead, though, of +10 or thereabouts. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

The other feature: the state polls *aren't* as strong for Biden as the national polls, although there haven't been that many high-quality and/or live-caller state polls lately. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

There's also a lot of non-tracking poll national data, and it's just become very routine to see double-digit leads for Biden, especially in the higher-quality polls. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

You really have to squint/cherry-pick to see a Trump comeback in the national polls. The IBD/TIPP tracking poll has bounced around a bit in a vaguely pro-Trump direction, I guess. But the other two tracking polls (USC and SurveyMonkey) show a steady/increasing Biden lead. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

The polls have been in something of a holding pattern for the past few days, with two distinguishing features. First, Biden's lead in national polls is very steady. It was 10.4 points a week ago and it's 10.7 points now. https://t.co/cy51vc5isJ https://t.co/NPHhaBDtoK — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @sfrostenson: We looked at some of the demographic trends at play in 2020 to see how things might shake out. TL;DR Trump is losing white… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Looks like Atlas shrugged off advice from medical experts: — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Also, Trump's chances are fairly low and could get lower. We think that our model is correctly interpreting polling and other evidence. But they're not zero and events with small-ish probabilities but high impact are important. Also, the margin in the race could matter a lot. https://t.co/OsNg3BGTRl — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

To be fair, most of these are about what NOT to do rather than what *to* do. In terms of what *to* do, I'd recommend pacing yourself. This is not one of those campaigns where we're likely to learn *that* much more between now and Nov. 3. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

The end of the campaign is anxiety-inducing. Here are 8 tips for how I'd recommend navigating the polls and under news developments. https://t.co/XExAd7qiRV — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

The "But Hunter Biden's e-mails!" story seems like it's more designed to boost the morale of the Trumpiest part of the pro-Trump corners of the media than to actually convince any swing voters of anything. https://t.co/J0M7YMZFsP https://t.co/n5BCB0Gwht — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Not trying to pick on this person but ... polls in Florida are not 50/50. Of the 20 polling firms active in Florida since the debate, 16 show Biden winning, two show a tie, and two (InsiderAdvantage and Trafalgar Group) show Trump ahead. https://t.co/nWUo9X5F4y — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

One irony of Trump folks saying not to trust the polls is that they *really really need the polls to be right about one particular thing* which is that huge numbers of Trump voters are waiting until Election Day to vote. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@Protentialmn I don't think these markets have made a ton of sense this election, but I'd guess it's probably traders overestimating the impact of the Hunter Biden story. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

...and those narratives tend to be stated with a high degree of confidence, because the weaker the argument on the evidence, the more people tend to bolster it with tone, affect, emotional appeals, etc. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

The other thing that happens at about this time is that the side that's significantly trailing in polls will have to construct increasingly elaborate narratives about why they're #actually winning or will come from behind despite the seeming evidence to the contrary... — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

In general, though, there tend to be more false positives in the final two weeks than things that really do move the polls. And that's perhaps more so in an election where there are few undecideds and many people have already voted. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I would note that our averages are tuned to a more aggressive setting in the closing days of the campaign. There certainly can be danger in under-reacting; we think some other averages were a bit slow to adjust to the Comey letter in 2016, for example. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Nonetheless, one thing these polling averages are very good at is detecting when there's been a real shift in the race from when there hasn't been. So even if you never look at our probabilistic *forecasts*, we think the *averages* can help you in that regard. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Even a 10-point lead isn't safe for Biden because 1) it's closer in the swing states 2) there's still *some* time for the race to tighten 3) polls can be wrong (although they'd have to be quite wrong, not just a little wrong, but I digress...) — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

But everybody's anxiety level is very, very high. So there's usually a lot of jumping the gun at minor stories, any claims about shifts in the polls, etc. Looking at polling averages can be helpful in this regard: https://t.co/cy51vc5isJ https://t.co/8AgnUC6jGt — PolitiTweet.org