Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked July 2, 2021

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Sun Oct 18 15:09:05 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Nonetheless, one thing these polling averages are very good at is detecting when there's been a real shift in the race from when there hasn't been. So even if you never look at our probabilistic *forecasts*, we think the *averages* can help you in that regard. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 18, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Even a 10-point lead isn't safe for Biden because 1) it's closer in the swing states 2) there's still *some* time for the race to tighten 3) polls can be wrong (although they'd have to be quite wrong, not just a little wrong, but I digress...) — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 18, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I would note that our averages are tuned to a more aggressive setting in the closing days of the campaign. There certainly can be danger in under-reacting; we think some other averages were a bit slow to adjust to the Comey letter in 2016, for example. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 18, 2020 Hibernated