Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked July 8, 2021

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Sun Oct 18 15:13:38 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

In general, though, there tend to be more false positives in the final two weeks than things that really do move the polls. And that's perhaps more so in an election where there are few undecideds and many people have already voted. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 18, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I would note that our averages are tuned to a more aggressive setting in the closing days of the campaign. There certainly can be danger in under-reacting; we think some other averages were a bit slow to adjust to the Comey letter in 2016, for example. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 18, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

The other thing that happens at about this time is that the side that's significantly trailing in polls will have to construct increasingly elaborate narratives about why they're #actually winning or will come from behind despite the seeming evidence to the contrary... — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 18, 2020 Hibernated