Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked July 25, 2021

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Mon Oct 19 15:17:30 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Biden's lead doesn't magically go from "safe" to "unsafe" based on some ad hoc comparison to 2016. This all exists along a probabilistic spectrum. And that cuts in both directions. Even if Biden's position is stronger (it is) there could be a *larger* polling error than in 2016. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 19, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

It's possible! That's why Trump has a 12% chance of winning and not zero. But there's no particular reason to *expect* that as opposed to, say, a polling miss that favors Biden instead. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 19, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@CahnEmily National polls were tighter in 2012, but I don't actually think that swing state polls were, and there were very few undecideds which made Obama's leads safer. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 19, 2020 Hibernated