Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked July 25, 2021

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Mon Oct 19 15:19:36 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@CahnEmily National polls were tighter in 2012, but I don't actually think that swing state polls were, and there were very few undecideds which made Obama's leads safer. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 19, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Biden's lead doesn't magically go from "safe" to "unsafe" based on some ad hoc comparison to 2016. This all exists along a probabilistic spectrum. And that cuts in both directions. Even if Biden's position is stronger (it is) there could be a *larger* polling error than in 2016. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 19, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@CahnEmily We re-examined some things after Trump's primary win in 2016 and the 2016/2020 version of our model tends to be a bit more conservative than our 2008/2012 version. So the 2012 version of our model would likely be more confident in Biden than what we're showing now. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 19, 2020 Hibernated