Nate Cohn

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

A few 4pm turnout updates going around, and they basically all point to a very large turnout well above 2017. Fairfax and Alexandria basically at 2017 numbers already, poised to go well over Rockingham, a heavily GOP county, is already well over 2017 levels — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

The Fox poll? That was a kind of crazy turnout scenario--GOP 8 pts better with LVs than RVs. It's not impossible, but it's less likely as turnout goes up. And I would say that's *one* of the routes Youngkin had to victory, even if it was not likeliest — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Nonetheless, we have learned something from these turnout reports: turnout is fairly high. We could head to 3 million votes. Higher turnout, in general, reduces the likelihood of crazy turnout scenarios — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Let's say GOP turnout was 10% higher than usual, without any change for Dems-- a big shift that, alone, would cut Biden lead in half. If there were no other shifts, turnout in a deep blue county (Fairfax) would be up 2% and up 6% in a red Hanover. Barely noticeable. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Why doesn't it mean much? Well, even fairly meaning swings in partisan turnout don't show up very clearly in the turnout by county. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

You've probably seen all sorts of Virginia turnout data by county, including from this account. What does it mean? Honestly, not a ton--but it does rule out a few things. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

OTOH, if Youngkin got no crossover vote in early voting, -then McA would win 63% of early votes and Youngkin would need to win by 16 points on Election Day to prevail — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

This has some implications for how we interpret the election day vote. If we assume a tied race, with uniform swing across methods (bringing McA to 58% of early vote), and 3 million total votes, then Youngkin would need to win the election day by 10 points to prevail. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Similarly, NYT/Siena respondents (n=4k in VA, though often in GOP-leaning CDs) who cast early ballots disapproved of Trump, 35-65 (v. 53% of all RVs polled) — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Over all, 45 percent of the advance voters cast ballots in a recent Democratic primary, v. 25 percent in recent Republican primaries. We'd expect the non-primary vote to also lean heavily Democratic — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

It's important to note that's the proportion that voted for Biden, not McAuliffe. We can reasonably infer that McAuliffe will win this vote, but whether it's 58% or 63 will depend on the size of the crossover vote. That said, all seem consistent with '21 polling on early voting — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Final advance voting update: the 1.1 million voters who cast early/mail ballots probably backed Biden with around 63% of the vote in 2020, according to estimates based on voter file data and NYT/Siena polls from 2017-2020 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @ForecasterEnten: My new Margins of Error episode (https://t.co/395OOt2vWO) is a rare politics one. I look at why it took so long to cal… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

I might get back to this again near the end of the day, but for now I'm off to process the last few days of early voting. Through Thursday, the early voters appeared to be about 64% for Biden in '20 (dk mcauliffe, ofc). I'd guess it'll be a little lower now, but we'll see — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

but at least at the moment, there's a lot of consistency: except Falls Church (higher by this measure), each on track for between 69 and 73% of 2020; except for Charlottesvile (lower by this measure), each between 113 and 117% of 2017) — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

(as a result, there's been some real shifts since I first looked at this around 10AM. rockingham was fire, it cooled off; charlottesville was weak, it heated up. there can be more shifts ahead, and that's leaving aside that these counties aren't necessarily representative) — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Also important to keep in mind that it is early in the day still, and often times different kinds of voters--esp young--show up later in the day — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

That includes three northern Virginia counties/cities, Charlottesville, and heavily GOP Rockingham County. While there's some variance, all tell a fundamentally similar story at this point — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Turnout update: across five counties identified in a noncomprehensive look around Twitter, turnout so far was on track to reach 71% of 2020 levels and 114% of 2017 levels. If that pattern held statewide--it might not--we'd be a bit over 3 million votes — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

sorry, forgot attribution: @yghitza — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

A known but not-very-famous story about the Obama team crunching the early turnout numbers in Ohio. Something to keep in mind when you're reading the early AM turnout tea leaves https://t.co/cI63nLgbb9 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@Redistrict (before any of today/late mail, provisionals etc) — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@Redistrict i may be misunderstanding the read out, but as i interpret it they're on track for >15k votes 2039 *13/3 + 6461 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

TBT, four years ago AP race call at 8:06 pm Might be a longer night tomorrow https://t.co/LfDgk5XEAe — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@pollhannes @kwcollins yeah, but that's subtly yet significantly different than saying that 'party modeling' is great for people without primary vote in any case, we have 2018 non voters who have voted already at 57% support for biden, v. 64% among those who did vote in 2018 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@kwcollins i mean kind of. we have 4k interviews in VA from our 2017/2018 polls, and the 2021 early voters who didn't vote in 2018 said they disapproved of trump 69-31. but that group is n=32 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@kwcollins and i do think our understanding of an unlikely voter is being hurt a bit by coming out of the high turnout trump era. 85% of these voters turned out in 2018 or 2017, and they look 'high turnout' in a flash forward type model. but those were high turnout elections — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@kwcollins though in VA, most of the party modeling is coming from primary vote... which is basically a likely voter by definition — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

one of the better, clever arguments for McAuliffe is that he's only down two in Trafalgar lol https://t.co/yoU3A9HK0r — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Or put differently, I'm not drawing attention to the trajectory to make a prediction. But I do think there is a valid trendline/trajectory type argument in this election--even if it's not dispositive and even though I usually don't think that's a good way to think about it — PolitiTweet.org