Nate Cohn

@Nate_Cohn ↗

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Last Checked Nov. 16, 2021

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Tue Nov 02 18:29:47 +0000 2021

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

OTOH, if Youngkin got no crossover vote in early voting, -then McA would win 63% of early votes and Youngkin would need to win by 16 points on Election Day to prevail — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 2, 2021

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

This has some implications for how we interpret the election day vote. If we assume a tied race, with uniform swing across methods (bringing McA to 58% of early vote), and 3 million total votes, then Youngkin would need to win the election day by 10 points to prevail. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 2, 2021

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

You've probably seen all sorts of Virginia turnout data by county, including from this account. What does it mean? Honestly, not a ton--but it does rule out a few things. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 2, 2021