Nate Cohn

@Nate_Cohn ↗

Deleted No

Hibernated No

Last Checked Nov. 16, 2021

Created

Tue Nov 02 18:27:29 +0000 2021

Likes

133

Retweets

Source

Twitter Web App

View Raw Data

JSON Data

View on Twitter

Likely Available

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

This has some implications for how we interpret the election day vote. If we assume a tied race, with uniform swing across methods (bringing McA to 58% of early vote), and 3 million total votes, then Youngkin would need to win the election day by 10 points to prevail. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 2, 2021

Preceded By

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Similarly, NYT/Siena respondents (n=4k in VA, though often in GOP-leaning CDs) who cast early ballots disapproved of Trump, 35-65 (v. 53% of all RVs polled) — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 2, 2021

Followed By

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

OTOH, if Youngkin got no crossover vote in early voting, -then McA would win 63% of early votes and Youngkin would need to win by 16 points on Election Day to prevail — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 2, 2021