Nate Cohn

@Nate_Cohn ↗

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Last Checked Nov. 16, 2021

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Tue Nov 02 18:20:49 +0000 2021

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Over all, 45 percent of the advance voters cast ballots in a recent Democratic primary, v. 25 percent in recent Republican primaries. We'd expect the non-primary vote to also lean heavily Democratic — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 2, 2021

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

It's important to note that's the proportion that voted for Biden, not McAuliffe. We can reasonably infer that McAuliffe will win this vote, but whether it's 58% or 63 will depend on the size of the crossover vote. That said, all seem consistent with '21 polling on early voting — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 2, 2021

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Similarly, NYT/Siena respondents (n=4k in VA, though often in GOP-leaning CDs) who cast early ballots disapproved of Trump, 35-65 (v. 53% of all RVs polled) — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 2, 2021