Nate Cohn

@Nate_Cohn ↗

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Last Checked Nov. 12, 2021

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Mon Nov 01 19:22:06 +0000 2021

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@kwcollins and i do think our understanding of an unlikely voter is being hurt a bit by coming out of the high turnout trump era. 85% of these voters turned out in 2018 or 2017, and they look 'high turnout' in a flash forward type model. but those were high turnout elections — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 1, 2021

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@kwcollins though in VA, most of the party modeling is coming from primary vote... which is basically a likely voter by definition — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 1, 2021

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@kwcollins i mean kind of. we have 4k interviews in VA from our 2017/2018 polls, and the 2021 early voters who didn't vote in 2018 said they disapproved of trump 69-31. but that group is n=32 — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 1, 2021