Nate Cohn

@Nate_Cohn ↗

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Last Checked Nov. 12, 2021

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Mon Nov 01 19:25:33 +0000 2021

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@kwcollins i mean kind of. we have 4k interviews in VA from our 2017/2018 polls, and the 2021 early voters who didn't vote in 2018 said they disapproved of trump 69-31. but that group is n=32 — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 1, 2021

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@kwcollins and i do think our understanding of an unlikely voter is being hurt a bit by coming out of the high turnout trump era. 85% of these voters turned out in 2018 or 2017, and they look 'high turnout' in a flash forward type model. but those were high turnout elections — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 1, 2021

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@pollhannes @kwcollins yeah, but that's subtly yet significantly different than saying that 'party modeling' is great for people without primary vote in any case, we have 2018 non voters who have voted already at 57% support for biden, v. 64% among those who did vote in 2018 — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 1, 2021