Nate Cohn

@Nate_Cohn ↗

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Last Checked Nov. 16, 2021

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Tue Nov 02 19:53:03 +0000 2021

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Nonetheless, we have learned something from these turnout reports: turnout is fairly high. We could head to 3 million votes. Higher turnout, in general, reduces the likelihood of crazy turnout scenarios — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 2, 2021

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Let's say GOP turnout was 10% higher than usual, without any change for Dems-- a big shift that, alone, would cut Biden lead in half. If there were no other shifts, turnout in a deep blue county (Fairfax) would be up 2% and up 6% in a red Hanover. Barely noticeable. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 2, 2021

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

The Fox poll? That was a kind of crazy turnout scenario--GOP 8 pts better with LVs than RVs. It's not impossible, but it's less likely as turnout goes up. And I would say that's *one* of the routes Youngkin had to victory, even if it was not likeliest — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 2, 2021