Nate Cohn

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @jmartNYT: Interesting buzz out of NC: @Flygirl_Joanie - an engineer and astronaut who was one of the first black women to go into spac… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @PollsAndVotes: Important paper on absentee voting in 2020 “states newly implementing no-excuse absentee voting for 2020 did not see la… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@tbonier @jon_m_rob @otis_reid @ElectProject that could be causally related to an extent (say, reagan/clinton/bush doing poorly in places where perot/nader/anderson voters could consolidate against them, bolstering the challenger in the broadly defined northwest) — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@tbonier @jon_m_rob @otis_reid @ElectProject i do think there is some general significance to the pattern. it is at least somewhat reminiscent of where establishment candidates do well or poorly in primaries, and where third party candidates fare well or poorly. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@tbonier @jon_m_rob @otis_reid @ElectProject no that's just the average from 84-12 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@tbonier @jon_m_rob @otis_reid @ElectProject Incumbent presidents have indeed held up better than average in the RGV (that darkest color is 10 pts of margin, 5 vote share), though until 2012 it would look mainly like a southern thing and it has very limited predictive value in 2012/2020 swing, controlling for demographics — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@tbonier @jon_m_rob @otis_reid @ElectProject Incumbent presidents have held up better than average in the RGV (that darkest color is 10 pts), though until 2020 it would look mainly like a southern thing and it has very limited predictive value in 20, controlling for demographics — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@tbonier @jon_m_rob @otis_reid @ElectProject Got curious, so here's the swing for president's running for reelection v. national average, where green is the president does better than average, from 84-12 https://t.co/WuesZioujM — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@tbonier @jon_m_rob @otis_reid @ElectProject 2004 swing v national average v. 2020 (red is democratic swing, from uselectionatlas) https://t.co/BHRKdsrAQc — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@tbonier @jon_m_rob @otis_reid @ElectProject as an aside, i do think the contemporaneous interpretation of 2004--that some combination of religious conservatism, national security, low nader vote, and his immigration stance helped bush--seems totally plausible. the RGV swing didn't stand out at all from the rest of TX — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@tbonier @otis_reid @ElectProject and it's not just the RGV of course; to take the most famous one, AOC ran behind Biden, who both ran well behind Clinton — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@ElectProject @tbonier @otis_reid Shor had one — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@tbonier @otis_reid @ElectProject varies by seat. dems ran behind in TX23 (open); ran ~even in TX15 (Gonzalez), ran well ahead in TX15 (Vela) and 15 pts ahead in TX28 (Cuellar). But it's not an easy story that it's just Trump when TX15 is d+3 w a dem incumbent — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@tbonier @otis_reid @ElectProject and i think the emphasis is remains notable. if you go from turnout to incumbency, perhaps the two most convenient theories for progressives, it makes me suspicious about the extent that wishful thinking v evidence is driving the convo — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@tbonier @otis_reid @ElectProject right, that's the theory. leaving aside what i think of the evidence for the theory, which i think is plausible but hardly conclusively, i think it would be a much stronger theory if the incumbent house democrats weren't doing just as bad or worse than biden in latino areas — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@tbonier @otis_reid @ElectProject (Vincente Gonzalez would be very surprised to learn that incumbency explains what happened in the RGV!) — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@tbonier @otis_reid @ElectProject Add it to the list! When you lose 10 points, it's probably everything. But emphasizing incumbency, like turnout, stands out mainly for being convenient for progressives, not for its supporting evidence, and that's leaving aside the (downballot) evidence to the contrary — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@tbonier @otis_reid That's particularly true if you assume, as I do, that the modest turnout swings are probably a function of whatever caused vote switching (though I'm agnostic on how to apportion 'blame' between defund, socialism, stimulus checks, declining immigration salience, etc.) — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@tbonier @otis_reid I mean if someone specifies it's 'exclusively' switching, then I think it's fair to point out marginal turnout changes. But in the absence of the need to refute an erroneous claim, I think pivoting back to marginal turnout swings probably obscures more than it reveals — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@otis_reid @tbonier c) this philly exercise is an illustration of one fundamental point: while we can note localized turnout stories, the broad national gop gain among latino voters basically requires vote switching, since gop turnout can't produce large swings in overwhelming democratic areas — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@jon_m_rob @mattsinger7 @xenocryptsite @otis_reid @tbonier I prefer “depart” the electorate — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@otis_reid @tbonier or if you prefer visual regression https://t.co/yMMAZvH4St — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@otis_reid @tbonier c) when we're talking about an extremely high turnout election like this one, i don't see why we would ever suppose that a decline in turnout is anything other than a problem with persuasion — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@otis_reid @tbonier a) on the question of whether we ought to assume 9/10 pts, see attached b) it seems to me that these 16/20 turnout swings are based on '16 registration figures; some proportion of the apparent turnout shift is folks changing their registration https://t.co/CenYcziK3J — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@StevePtweets @leedrutman but i think the element of 1896 that's emphasized in his piece and that i'm referring to here--the departure from civil war voting patterns in the north/west, to the advantage one party--is independent of the simultaneously entrenchment of jim crow laws — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@StevePtweets @leedrutman although you've directed this at me for some reason, i actually think this is a 110% fair critique of drutman's characterization of the 'guilded age' elections, as partisan parity during that era was mainly and perhaps exclusively an artifact of disenfranchising black republicans — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

(or 2016 tbh) — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

If the Democrats had fewer structural disadvantages with respect to the national vote, there would be an endless number of articles comparing 2020 to 1896, and not because the popular vote margin is essentially identical https://t.co/uijGvPAxaI — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @nytgraphics: Our analysis examines deaths from all causes — not just confirmed coronavirus cases. This includes deaths related to disru… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @nytgraphics: Since last March, about 544,000 more people in the U.S. have died than would have in a normal year, a sign of the devastat… — PolitiTweet.org