Nate Cohn

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@tbonier @jon_m_rob @otis_reid @ElectProject Incumbent presidents have indeed held up better than average in the RGV (that darkest color is 10 pts of margin, 5 vote share), though until 2012 it would look mainly like a southern thing and it has very limited predictive value in 2012/2020 swing, controlling for demographics — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@tbonier @jon_m_rob @otis_reid @ElectProject i do think there is some general significance to the pattern. it is at least somewhat reminiscent of where establishment candidates do well or poorly in primaries, and where third party candidates fare well or poorly. — PolitiTweet.org